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Wednesday November 3, 2004 - 17:39:41 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (3 November 2004)



The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as traders reacted to a probable – but not yet definitive – victory for President Bush in yesterday’s election. Bush decisively won the popular vote and provisional results in the key battleground state of Ohio are favouring Bush. It remains to be seen if Kerry will concede today’s election during North American dealing, demand a recount, or play the election to the end. It is certain, however, that Bush has the momentum at the present time. Another school of thought suggests the euro is stronger today because President Bush is likely to continue to champion an implicitly weaker U.S. dollar policy through Treasury’s repeated laissez-faire statements about foreign exchange. Many traders believe the stage has now been set to launch another attack on the $1.2840/$1.2930 levels. Data released in the U.S. today saw the October ISM non-manufacturing index come in at 59.8, above most forecasts. Data released in the eurozone today saw the October EMU-12 services PMI register its first improvement since May, rising to 53.5 from September’s 53.3 level. The new business sub-index, however, retreated to its lowest level since August 2003. The index also revealed a grim outlook for German unemployment. Euro bids are cited around the $1.2750/30 levels.

¥

The yen weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥106.90 level before moving back to the ¥106.30 level during North American dealing. Japanese financial markets were largely closed for a national holiday today hence liquidity was reduced during Australasian dealing. Many Bank of Japan-watchers believe the probably Bush victory may afford the central bank more of an opportunity to conduct yen-selling intervention. Japanese monetary officials have not conducted overt or official yen-selling activities for more than six months. The question in traders’ minds is where the line-in-the-sand might be regarding BoJ bid levels. The pair has reached a recent low of ¥105.75 and there was no sign of intervention, leading some to speculate Japan will tolerate a ¥105 handle. One school of though suggests the BoJ will sell yen to protect the ¥103.40 level, the 2004 low. Technically, the ¥107.20 level remains a key level of technical resistance. Traders are closely watching the price of oil. After trading around $51.20 today, the pair has traded at a low of $49.02 before moving back to just below the $50.00 figure. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥106.00 figure and offers are seen around the ¥107.15 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen today as the single currency tested offers around the ¥136.10 level after finding bids around the ¥134.70 level. Stops were triggered above the ¥135.35 level during the move higher. Technically, the cross continues to consolidate and traders are interested to see if the pair can build a base around the ¥135.25/ ¥134.55 levels.

 

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