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Wednesday May 14, 2008 - 10:37:51 GMT
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Forex Research - Pound Selling Relentless Amidst Slowdown Concerns

 

Another day, another decline in GBPUSD as the currency hit 12 week lows amidst growing concerns over the health of the UK economy.

Talking Points

•    Japanese Yen: DCGPI at fastest rate in 30 years
•    Euro: IP declines but French inflation remains hot
•    Pound: Hit once again on growth concerns
•    US Dollar: CPI on tap

Another day, another decline in GBPUSD as the currency hit 12 week lows amidst growing concerns over the health of the UK economy. UK labor markets weakened materially in April as jobless claims rose 7.2K from 0K projected with companies hastening their pace of layoffs as demand deteriorates.

Despite persistent problems with price pressures as evidenced by much hotter than expected PPI and CPI readings this week, the BoE may not be able to maintain its battle against inflation by keeping rates steady for much longer if UK economic data shows further signs of weakness. Indeed Governor King himself echoed such sentiments in Boe Quarterly inflation report by noting that MPC is "facing its most difficult challenge yet" and that the UK is on a "bumpy road" as the economy rebalances. He also stated that  UK CPI inflation will return to its 2.0% target level leading traders to speculate that the focus of the BoE may shifting to stimulating growth rather than controlling inflation.

Cable fell to 1.9365 in the aftermath of the report, but bounced slightly above the 1.9400 figure into the early morning London trade. Nevertheless, cable is acting like a wounded animal as market consensus now centers on the notion that it is just a matter of time before BOE is forced to ease.  

With yesterday’s better than expected US Retail Sales the overall sentiment in the FX market has turned decidedly dollar bullish, as the dominant theme in the market appears to be  that US monetary policy easing is nearly complete while rate cutting from the ECB and BoE is just beginning. Today’s US CPI numbers may only reinforce that idea especially if the reading prints hotter than expected.  With US consumer demand relatively healthy, the Fed may refocus it attention on growing price pressures in the US economy and choose to remain stationary at the next FOMC meeting relieving some downward pressure in the buck. Still, the pair continues to consolidate below the 1.5500 level and is unlikely to make any meaningful move given the paucity of economic news for the rest of the week. As we noted in our weekly commentary, trade action promises to be one of grinding consolidation with the pair bounded by 1.5600 to the topside and 1.5300 to the downside.


Is The Euro Headed Below 1.500?  Join us in EURUSD Forum

05-14-08-1

05-14-08-2

Boris_Schlossberg 

To discuss this article please contact Boris Schlossberg, Senior Curency Strategist: bschlossberg@fxcm.com

 

©2008 DailyFX. All Rights Reserved.

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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