Thursday November 4, 2004 - 01:04:24 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 4th November 2004 Price: ... 1.2816
Resistance: 1.2832 ... 1.2860 ... 1.2900 ... 1.2927
Support....: 1.2805 ... 1.2775 ... 1.2750 ... 1.2730
An initial drop back to 1.2730-50 followed by an attack on the 1.2927-62 area
The dip to 1.2656 was a bit frustrating but the recovery from there has been on cue. However, we feel that initial trading should see some pullback and this is expected to reach the 1.2730-50 area - more likely to be the higher - before further upside can be seen. Thus from 1.2750 or a direct break of 1.2832-41 we look for a rally up to the favored 1.2927-62 target area which we feel could cap. Only above here would accelerate gains up to 1.3100.
The dip to 1.2656 was rather frustrating but held above the critical 1.2629 corrective low and has reached a high of 1.2827 over the past few hours. While the 1.2832 level holds we feel there is a slightly greater argument for a move lower in early trading which has potential to reach 1.2770-75 at least and possibly 1.2750. We see this as a possible floor - with 1.2730 also implied. Thus a stronger bearish view would only be implied on a loss of 1.2730 and also 1.2695. If seen then expect a swift test and breach of the 1.2629 low and a continued move lower.
Elliott Wave Comments:
November 1st 2004
We had fully expected after the 1.2630 corrective low which we had labeled Wave (iv) as providing a base for a rally in Wave (v). However, we have looked at the price development since and we see a Wave (c) target (of a three-wave move) at 1.2845. Thus we are slightly cautious and in fact marginally favor this Wave (iv) developing in a more complex correction, possibly a flat, especially considering Wave (ii) was so brief. This would imply further 1.2630-1.2850 ranging ahead of a move to the 1.2927-62 minimum target.
November 3rd 2004
The wave structure has been developing well within the triangle structure and the reversal from 1.2662 now suggests a move higher to 1.2785-1.2815 in Wave d before a Wave e that should remain above 1.2700 to complete Wave (iv) and allow Wave (v) to commence. We are looking at the possibility of a Flat Correction from this years 1.2927 peak which would imply a topat 1.2927-62 - the latter level provided by a Wave -c- target being Wave -a- x 1.618.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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