User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday May 15, 2008 - 21:39:37 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex research - A Weak US Dollar May Not Be Good Enough

 

• Euro: Looking for Fresh Direction
• Is the Sell-off in the British Pound Over?

A Weak US Dollar May Not Be Good Enough

Since the beginning of the year, the US dollar has fallen 5.9 percent against the Euro and 6.7 percent against the Japanese Yen.  For many countries, including the US, a weak dollar has caused major problems ranging from deteriorating export growth to inflation.  The one good thing that the weaker dollar was supposed to do is to save the US manufacturing sector.  Unfortunately, today’s US economic data proved otherwise.  Industrial production dropped 0.7 percent in the month of April, manufacturing activity in the NY region dipped into negative territory and even though the Philly Fed index rebounded from -24.9 to -15.6, it still remains deep in contractionary territory.  Unfortunately the depreciating value of the US dollar has failed to offset slowing demand.  The automobile sector has been the hit the hardest from the double blow of higher oil prices and a weaker labor market.  The US economy is continuing to struggle and there is no doubt that the Federal Reserve has a tough task ahead of them.  Jobless claims increased last week while the NAHB housing market index fell to 19, one point shy of its record lows.  Although foreign purchases of US securities increased $80.4 billion in March, including short term securities like US Treasury bills and non-market transactions such as stock swaps, foreigners were actually net sellers.  This reflects the sharp liquidation out of short term securities in the immediate aftermath of the Bear Stearns debacle.  Tomorrow we are expecting housing starts, building permits and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey.  With many construction projects still underway in big cities New York, a lot of inventory has yet to flow onto the markets.  Combined with the uncertainty of the outlook for the US economy, housing starts and applications for building permits should continue to fall.  In such conditions, it will be difficult for consumer confidence to improve and as a result, we expect the UMich index to fall to a fresh 26 year low.  Dollar weakness should prevail, particularly against the Japanese Yen, Canadian and Australian dollars. 

Euro: Looking for Fresh Direction

Euro traders are looking for a fresh direction. Since the beginning of the month, the currency has been trapped within a relatively tight trading range as rising inflation meets weakening economic data.  ECB President Trichet lent his weight to the debate last week when he confirmed the central bank’s focus on inflation.  Although this has helped the Euro carve out a near term bottom, the tables have recently turned, leaving traders confused about where the Euro is headed next.  Commodity prices have tumbled with oil prices off its highs and rice prices declining for the fourth day in a row.  On the other hand, Eurozone economic data has been improving with growth in France and Germany rising more than expected in the first quarter.  Strong consumer spending and rising trade balances have helped to spur growth in the first 3 months of the year, but it is important to remember that these numbers are backward looking, which is part of the reason why the Euro was unable to hold onto its gains following the report.  The Eurozone trade balance is due for release tomorrow along with Swiss retail sales.  The Swiss franc looks particularly bearish against the Japanese Yen which correlates with the market’s forecast for weaker consumer spending. 

Visit the Euro Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.

Is the Sell-off in the British Pound Over?

The British pound has finally stabilized after gradually trending lower since the beginning of the month.  Coincidently, the currency’s pair’s intraday low was exactly the same price as the low reached on February 20th, leading some technical traders to call the latest recovery a double bottom.  Fundamentally, there was no UK data released last night and none are expected tomorrow, which means that there is no major news to drive the British pound lower.   The US data on the hand could drive the dollar lower which coincides with the potential for a GBP/USD rally.  However even though the currency pair could very well extend its gains over the next 24 hours, the British pound remains vulnerable to further losses especially if the housing market deteriorates further. 

Visit the British Pound Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the British Pound.

Sharp Recovery in the New Zealand Dollar

One of the most interesting stories in the FX market over the past few weeks has been the New Zealand dollar.  The currency has been on a one way downtrend since last week, having lost close to 400 pips in a matter of days.  Economic data has taken a turn for the worst with retail sales dropping 1.2 percent in March.  The drop in visitor arrivals and credit card spending should have been the first clue that consumer spending has been weak.  If producer prices, which are due for release this evening, are also soft, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could actually consider lowering interest rates.  Canadian manufacturing shipments fell short of expectations as well, but the sell-off in the US dollar has offset any kiwi or Cad bearishness and has instead pushed all of the commodity producing currencies higher. 

Tell us what you think on the Canadian dollar Forum.

USDJPY: Still Flirting with 105

USDJPY is still flirting with the 105 price level.  Having hit an intraday high of 105.29, the currency pair has failed to hold onto those gains.  Japanese economic data was weaker than expected with machine orders falling 8.3 percent in the month of March.  GDP, industrial production, and consumer confidence are due for release this evening.  Most likely the numbers will be weak because even though consumer spending improved in the first 3 months of the year, trade decreased.  All of the carry trades are getting heavier by the day and look vulnerable to further losses.

Visit the Japanese Yen Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Yen.

Daily1_5-15

Daily2_5-15

Daily3_5-15




By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com

Contact Kathy Lien about this article at klien@dailyfx.com

 

©2008 DailyFX. All Rights Reserved.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 15 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 14 Dec
23:50 JP- Tankan Survey

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --23:50-- JP- Tankan Survey
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105