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Monday May 19, 2008 - 14:57:40 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (19 May 2008)

The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.5555 level and was capped around the $1.5630 level.  Technically, today’s intraday high and low were right around the 50% and 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.6020 to $1.5280.  European Central Bank President Trichet reinforced expectations the central bank is unlikely to ease monetary policy anytime soon.  Trichet reported policymakers must prevent higher inflation from igniting higher pay deals that could in turn lead to an inflationary spiral.  Germany’s Bundesbank released its monthly bulletin today in which it reported the ECB’s “central monetary policy challenge remains the firm anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations.”  Germany’s ZEW research institute will release its economic expectations tomorrow for May.  The German Economy Ministry today reported the economy will slow in the next few months.  Data released in the eurozone today saw March construction output fall 2.2% m/m and 1.4% y/y.  In U.S. news, traders await the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting from 30 April on Wednesday.  Policymakers voted to reduce the federal funds target rate by 25bps at that meeting and dealers await any clue that the Fed may be close to ending its long-term rate-easing cycle.  Data released in the U.S. today saw the April leading index up 0.1%.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.5230 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥103.65 level and was capped around the ¥104.30 level.  Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 61.8% retracement of the move from ¥108.60 to ¥95.70.  Data released in Japan overnight saw April department store sales off 3.4% y/y, the latest evidence that final private demand is lagging.  The government announced an initiative today to expand foreign investment in Japan.    The coincident index and tertiary index will be released tonight.  The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.35% to close at ¥14,269.61.    Dollar bids are cited around the ¥103.00/ 101.35 levels.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥161.80 level and was capped around the ¥162.50 level.  The British pound and Swiss franc weakened vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥203.05 and ¥99.20 levels, respectively.  The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.9753 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.9890 and the pair’s lowest close since the yuan revaluation of July 2005. 



The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.9490 level and was capped around the $1.9625 level.  Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from US$ 2.0025 to $1.9360.  Data released in the U.K. overnight saw Rightmove May house prices up 1.2%, reaching its highest level in nearly six years.  RICS reported U.K. house sales may decline more than 40% in 2008 and Lloyds TSB business optimism survey reached new lows in April.  It was also reported that Bank of England Deputy Governor Lomax is resigning from the central bank effective next month.  Candidates to succeed her include MPC’s Bean and Tucker.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9360/ 1.9100 levels.  The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.7980 level and was supported around the ₤0.7950 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0530 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0415 level.  Swiss April producer and import prices data will be released tomorrow.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0760 level.  The euro and British pound gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested offers around the CHF 1.6350 and CHF 2.0525 levels, respectively.

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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