Friday November 5, 2004 - 00:11:13 GMT
Share This Story
FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar November 5th 2004 Price: ... 1.2871
Resistance: 1.2895 ... 1.2937 ... 1.2962 ... 1.2984
Support....: 1.2850 ... 1.2825 ... 1.2802 ... 1.2770
While 1.2802-25 holds we look for a final rally to the 1.2962-84 area
The dip yesterday was shallower than expected and has reached the 1.2896 level. From here we expect early trading to see a pullback to 1.2825 at least and we suspect 1.2800. However, from this corrective low we look for a final rally to move above yesterday's high and through this year's high at 1.2927 and onto the 1.2962-84 area where we expect a major cap to develop. Further resistance is found at 1.3010 and 1.3050.
Trading in the first half of the day should test lower and we look for a minimum target for this at 1.2825 but suspect a test of the 1.2802 level. However, we look for this to hold any downside. Thus only a break here would cause a sharper decline with next supports at 1.2750 and 1.2690-00. Any test of 1.2962-84 should provide an excellent selling opportunity.
Elliott Wave Comments:
November 1st 2004
We had fully expected after the 1.2630 corrective low which we had labeled Wave (iv) as providing a base for a rally in Wave (v). However, we have looked at the price development since and we see a Wave (c) target (of a three-wave move) at 1.2845. Thus we are slightly cautious and in fact marginally favor this Wave (iv) developing in a more complex correction, possibly a flat, especially considering Wave (ii) was so brief. This would imply further 1.2630-1.2850 ranging ahead of a move to the 1.2927-62 minimum target.
November 3rd 2004
The wave structure has been developing well within the triangle structure and the reversal from 1.2662 now suggests a move higher to 1.2785-1.2815 in Wave d before a Wave e that should remain above 1.2700 to complete Wave (iv) and allow Wave (v) to commence. We are looking at the possibility of a Flat Correction from this years 1.2927 peak which would imply a topat 1.2927-62 - the latter level provided by a Wave -c- target being Wave -a- x 1.618.
November 5th 2004
Given the direct break above 1.2832-41 yesterday we have had to slightly amend the wave count and we now look at this as a three-wave move higher from 1.2629 which has targets in the 1.2962-84 area. This area represents a 1.618 Wave -c- target along with a Wave (v) target at 1.2984. Thus we expect a larger move lower from here.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy Pro Charts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."