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Friday November 5, 2004 - 08:25:30 GMT
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Forex Trading Strategies by John Hardy at Saxo Bank

EUR/USD poised just off all time highs as US payrolls data looms. EUR/USD may rise 1.3050 next week if US data bad.

The event risk of Nonfarm Payrolls today makes the immediate technical situation uncertain.



November 5, 2004

Economic Data Today (all times GMT):

09:00 - Norway Industrial Production (Sep)
09:30 - UK Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Sep)
10:00 - EuroZone Retail Trade (Sep)
11:00 - Germany Industrial Production (Sep)
12:00 - Canada Unemployment Rate/Change in Employment - expected at 7.1% / +29.0K
13:30 - US Unemployment Rate (Oct) - expected at 5.4%
13:30 - US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) - expected at +175K
13:30 - US Average Weekly Hours, Average Hourly Earnings (Oct)
13:30 - UK NIESR GDP estimate (Oct)


Market Commentary

Today's payrolls data are the obvious event risk of the moment. One of the leading indicators we use to make a guess (never better than a guess!) at how the payrolls data will turn out is the monthly Monster Employment Index the - which showed no change from the previous month. If this number has any correlation with the payrolls data (and we feel it often does), then we would seem to have high odds of a worse number than the 175K expected. The 4-week moving average for the weekly initial jobless claims has ticked down since the hurricane induced problems in September, but is still higher than it was for much of the summer.

The payrolls data will certainly be the day's main focus - here are a few ways this may play out...

Negative data (< +150K). On negative data, one would expected EUR/USD to immediately rush higher to new levels - even if the market gets choppy on profit-taking before the weekend.
As expected data (between 150k and 190K) - EUR/USD might sell off initially, but then could regain its feet and close essentially unchanged
Better than expected (over +190K) - EUR/USD drops to 1.2750 immediately and drops a bit further next week, but gains support above 1.2600


Technical Comments

EUR/USD - made new highs yesterday on rumors of Arafats demise and an essentially bullish ECB press conference (in which Trichet only expressed concerns about "excess volatility" rather than the actual level of the Euro). The event risk today determines whether EUR/USD is beaten back to support around 1.2800 or slightly lower, or whether it zooms immediately to 1.3050 by early next week before a larger correction sets in.

GBP/USD - the break above 1.8450 resistance was apparently premature as GBP was beaten back against the USD and especially the EUR and CHF on signs that housing prices are beginning to come off more rapidly in the UK. Nonetheless, GBP/USD may have found support just above 1.8400 and could rally again back through the 1.8500 top on its way to 1.8600. On positive payrolls data from the US, on the other, GBP/USD may risk a further selloff towards 1.8300 support.

USD/CHF - CHF is very strong, perhaps partially due to the fear of Arafat's eminent death. History shows that this kind of fear is unwarranted, but the technical situation gives us no reason to sell CHF just yet. Against the USD, USD/CHF may fall further to 1.1700 by early next week if the US payroll data doesn't contain any upside surprises. 1.1910 is resistance, and USD/CHF could risk a correction back to 1.2000 on positive US data.

USD/JPY - USD/JPY made a brief attempt at new lows yesterday, but the lows couldn't hold and USD/JPY edged back higher. On negative US data, USD/JPY may be somewhat rangebound, but could fall further to 105.20, while positive surprises could see USD/JPY back towards the 107.00 resistance.

EUR/JPY - while still within its medium term range, the sharp EUR/JPY rally looks to stay intact and possibly rally to new highs beyond 137.00 as long as the 136.00 level stays intact. Positive US data surprises could quickly derail this scenario, however.

AUD/USD - AUD/USD is the most "elegant and organized" technically of the USD pairs charts - a highly unusual circumstance as AUD/USD tends to be rather volatile. Positive US data could put the AUD/USD at risk of falling through 0.7500 support, while negative data could see AUD/USD snapping cleanly higher to 0.7700 by early next week.

USD/CAD - the rapid fall in oil prices is not tarnishing the still-shining CAD, which continues on its ramapage against the USD. Today is especially risky, however, with Canada employment numbers up 90 minutes before their US counterparts. USD/CAD is clearly on a downtrend, but the right combination of data could see it pushed as high as 1.2160 (or even 1.2300 if US data extraordinarily good and Canada data extraordinarily bad) or pushed lower towards 1.1900. If traders are short, they might consider taking profits on any further downward spikes if they occur before the US data is released. In general, favor one more push lower just beyond 1.2000 before a new corrective sequence starts.

=================================

Saxo Bank A/S accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information here in contained nor for any forecasts or recommendations. Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that you will profit from the strategies herein or that your losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Stops may not necessarily limit losses to intended levels. Please read the full disclaimer at http://www.saxobank.com/?id=193&Lan=DA&Au=2&Grp=6

 

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