Friday November 5, 2004 - 10:58:04 GMT
Share This Story
INVESTICA Ltd - www.investica.co.uk
Payroll data vital for dollar
The US payroll data will have an important impact on underlying dollar sentiment as the figures will set the tone for next week's Fed decision. Given the depth of negative underlying dollar sentiment, the employment figure will have to be very strong to force a reversal in underlying negative dollar sentiment. The markets will also look for opportunities to sell the US currency. Nevertheless, the Euro offers no immediate value above the 1.29 level.
The dollar has remained under downward pressure and weakened to a low of 1.2890 in New York on Thursday before a marginal recovery. The dollar staged a further slight recovery in early Europe on Friday to 1.2855.
The employment report today will be very important for the US currency. Market expectations are centred on a 170,000 payroll increase for October. If the figure is above 200,000, there should be scope for a rebound in the US currency. The extent and duration of the dollar correction will, however, be important in determining underlying dollar sentiment. If there is little recovery, there is likely to be fresh dollar selling. If the figure is below 120,000, there would be a very high probability of at least temporary record lows for the dollar against the Euro.
As expected, the ECB left interest rates at 2.0% on Thursday. In the central bank's comments, ECB Chairman Trichet concentrated on the potential inflation concerns surrounding high oil prices and he failed to make significant comments on the Euro. There will be some concerns within the ECB and the banks will not want the dollar to be seen as a one-way bet.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."