Â·In equity news overnight Nelnet (NNI) announced that it is suspending its
dividend Air France [AF.FR] reported their Q4 net at a loss of â‚¬49M overnight,
above estimates of â‚¬59M, and revenue of â‚¬5.7B, above the â‚¬5.6B consensus
estimate. The company noted that premium traffic was hit by Easter in March.
Tate & Lyle [TATE.UK] reported FY07 net income of Â£187M, down from the
Â£217M in 2006, and revenue of Â£3.4B, up from the Â£3.2B seen in 2006. Cable
& Wireless [CW.UK] reported FY07 net income of Â£164M, just below estimates
of Â£168.2M, and revenue of Â£3.15B, just below estimates of Â£3.2B. The London
Stock Exchange [LSE.UK] reports their FY07 net income at Â£173.8M, well above
the Â£157M estimate, and revenue of Â£546.4M, above estimates of Â£526M.
Â·The newspapers were relatively dry in terms of equity related stories
overnight. According to the Financial Times, the world's leading banks are
looking to relax accounting rules. A group of more than 300 companies (the Institute of International Finance) have created a proposal on "fair
value" accounting that would enable financial companies to value illiquid
assets using historical, rather than market prices.
Â·In energy news, according to the Wall Street Journal the IEA warned of a
future oil production crunch, saying that future supplies may be tighter than
initially thought. The IEA is currently in the process of assessing the
condition of the world's top 400 oil fields. Official findings will not be
published until November. The Qatari oil minister said overnight that oil
prices are out of control, adding that OPEC members are producing at full
capacity, and reiterating that OPEC does not have any plans to react ahead of
the September meeting. Al-Attiyah added that there is no magic solution to the
record high oil prices, adding that oil producers are being hit by record high
inflation. ING overnight raised its 2008 average oil price forecast by 21% and
its 2009 average oil price forecast by 44%, putting both forecasts at $115. ING
also raised its long- term oil prices forecast by 50% to $90/barrel, noting
that it had to "rip up" its previous oil price assumptions. ING said
that oil prices are stubbornly disconnected from fundamentals. The Libyan Oil
Minister said overnight that OPEC is producing as much as market seeks,
reiterates that oil prices are driven by speculation, and adding that the price
of oil is out of OPEC's hands. According to RIA Novosti the Russian cabinet may
submit a bill to cut taxes for oil producers to parliament next week.
Â·In new supply overnight Spain sold â‚¬1.07B in 4.90% 30-year bonds with
an average yield of 4.917%, and a bid-to-cover of 2.18x. The cover compares to
the 1.9x averaged over the past three auctions. Elsewhere, the DMO sold Â£900M
in 1.125% 2037 I/L gilts with a real yield of 0.763% and a bid-to-cover of
1.99x. The cover compares to the 2.3 seen at the previous auction. The Wall
Street Journal noted overnight that early signs suggest that any changes made
to Libor by the BBA will be modest. According to the Financial Times, the OECD
sees food prices remaining elevated for 10 years The article sites a pending
report which indicates that the rising demand from the biofuels industry and
developing countries such as China will be highlighted as catalysts for the
rise in prices. Moody's said overnight that Spanish RMBS delinquency rates
deteriorated in Q1, noting that deterioration is likely to continue in 2008.
Moody's said that 2008 is likely to be challenging due to tighter credit
conditions, softening growth, rising unemployment, and higher mortgage interest
rates. Moody's pointed out that in Q1 60+ day delinquencies rose to 1.13% from
0.85% in Q4.
Â·In the currencies, the GBP rose to a three-week high of 1.9768 on the back of
a weaker-than-expected 0.2% decline in UK April retail sales and an upward
revision to the March reading. The EUR/GBP was lower by 35 pips around the
0.7970-level. The EUR/USD was off its best levels of 1.5814 seen just ahead of
the European morning.
Â·On the speaker front overnight a Bank of France spokesperson said overnight
that there is no credit crunch for household and company financing, adding that
household debt rose at a slower pace in 2007 than in prior years. According to
the International Herald Tribune French Finance Minister Lagarde urged central
banks to reduce the "misalignment" in the world's major currencies
overnight, saying that the slow USD is feeding an increasing trend toward
protectionism in the US and other places. The German Finance
Minister said overnight that the German economic upswing is likely to continue,
adding that he only sees a slight dampening in economic momentum. The finance
minster added that wages and job growth to lift private consumption, pointing
out that export momentum seen slowing due to the strong Euro. The Norges Bank
Governor said overnight that rates will remain in 5%-6% until June 25, adding
that interest rate hikes have started to slow growth. The central bank governor
said that capacity utilization must be curbed to prevent high inflation, noting
that he sees signs of a cooling in the Norwegian housing market. The governor
also pointed out that the Krone is strong. The ECB's Weber said overnight that
inflation is back on the global scale, noting that current price pressures are
due to high food and energy costs. Weber added that stability-oriented monetary
policy is necessary to deal with inflation pressures. The German BDB Lobby
raised its 2008 GDP forecast to 2.25%-2.50% from 1.6% overnight, maintaining
its 2009 forecast of just under 2.0%. The BDB Lobby warned against excessive
optimism after Q1 growth, noting that financial market problems are not over
yet. Ex- Bundesbank Head Ernst Welteke (1999-2004) said overnight that the
ECB's interest rate level is appropriate, adding that the ECB should by no means
lower interest rates. Bank of Spain Chief Economist Malo de Molina said
overnight that the Spanish economy is slowing at a faster rate than expected.
The Italian Employers Group said overnight that the strong Euro harming
exports, adding that the ECB must not underestimate the slowdown in growth.
Â·On the data front, Italian retail sales declined by more than expected,
falling to their lowest Y/Y leave since March of 2006. Declines were felt all
around, but the biggest declines were seen in the pharmaceuticals, and hardware
components. In the UK April retail sales above M/M consensus
expectations, and in-line with expectation on the Y/Y front, and were
accompanied by upward revisions to the March reading. Retail sales were
predominantly bolstered by a strong reading in the non- specialized stores
component. Euro-Zone industrial new orders declined by more than expected,
falling to the lowest Y/Y level since September of 2003, burdened by higher
energy prices, a slowdown in global economic growth, and the strong Euro. The
Sedlabanki unexpectedly held rates at 15.50% overnight. The Icelandic central
bank was expected to raise rates by 25bps, and likely held due to the recently
announced Nordic swap facility. The central bank is due to publish comments on
its decision at today.
Â·Looking ahead, on the data front the weekly initial jobless claims and
continuing claims are due out at 8:30ET, and will be followed at 10:00ET by the
Q1 house price index. In central bank speak the Fed's Kroszner is due to speak
to state banking regulators in Florida. Elsewhere the Treasury's Paulson is
scheduled to speak in Chicago today, while the Bank of Canada's Carney
is scheduled to speak in New York. On the earnings front, US notable
Barnes & Noble (BKS), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Hormel Foods Corp.
(HRL), and Tech Data (TECH) are all expected to report earnings ahead of the
equity market open today.
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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