Sunday November 7, 2004 - 09:16:34 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 8th November 2004 Price: ... 105.60
Resistance: 105.75 ... 106.00 ... 106.35 ... 106.65
Support....: 105.50 ... 105.30 ... 104.95 ... 104.60
While 105.30-50 holds, cautiously bullish back to 106.50-70
We became bullish too early on Friday, failing to anticipate a complex correction from 105.91 and thus we still see risk of minor new lows around 105.30-50. While this area holds we require a break back above 106.00 to confirm the bullish divergence and provide a lift back to the 106.50-70 area which may well hold on the day. Further resistance is found at 106.95-107.15. Any break below 105.30 would imply losses to 104.60 which should be observed for signs of a bottom forming.
Further losses seen to 105.50 and there still appears to be risk of a marginal new low at 105.30. However, only a break of 105.30 would suggest a stronger spike down to 104.60 which represents a large wave target and which could generate a reversal. Further support is then seen at the 103.42 low.
Elliott Wave Comments:
November 8th 2004
The blip higher to 106.65 and reversal on Friday looks more like an expanded flat correction in a Wave b position. We still have the larger daily target for Wave [iii] at 105.70 but should allow some leeway each side to allow for the short term wave structure to develop. Considering this we see a potential target at 105.30-50 which could provide the Wave [iii] low. A recovery from here would signal a choppy Wave [iv] recovery to 107.75 (38.2%) and probably 108.50 (50%) before a final wave lower to 104.60. This level is implied from the daily wave equality target where Wave C = Wave A.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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