and views It
was a fairly listless overnight session for the New Zealand
dollar. The currency openedoffshore dealings around USD0.7820
and saw an early spike to USD0.7868 but it ran intogood offers and slipped back
into a USD0.7830/55 range for the remainder of offshore trading. The currency
was relatively muted despite large swings in other asset markets overnight.
Risk appetite took a hit with the Dow Jones shedding 170pts overnight led by weakness
in the financials after S&P downgraded the debt ratings for several large
banks. Sentiment was already on the backfoot following the earlier announcement
Bradford and Bingley (a major buy-to-let lender) that the outlook for the UK
property market remains grim. The RBNZâ€™s OCR Review later this week and a light
bid tone to the NZD/AUD cross overnight probably helped insulate NZD. The NZD
opens local trading at USD0.7850.
Australian dollar was not as immune as the NZD overnight. The
AUD opened offshore trading on the backfoot in the wake of a disappointing
earlier retail sales release (-0.2% vs +0.2% expected), shedding about 20pts in
early trading. But long term buyers just ahead of USD0.9500 stepped up and the
AUD rebounded all the way back to 0.9560/70. These gains proved shortlived
though with deepening US equity market losses sending the AUD back toward
0.9530/40 in afternoon NY trading.
fell hard overnight, closely tracking US equity markets. From
offshore opening levels around 105.40 USD/JPY tumbled to lows near 104.00.
traded through a 100pt range overnight but finished the session
close to flat. Early weakness from around 1.5560 to lows of 1.5490 coincided
with weaker oil prices but as US
markets opened and equities slipped EUR recouped its losses. News that S&P
cut the debt ratings of several US
banks saw EUR spike to 1.5590 but it finished the session well off these highs
May manufacturing ISM rose to its highest since January, still
below the neutral 50 level but at 49.6, only just. Indeed with production
comfortably back above 50 and orders up more than 3 pts (but still just below
50) the overall report suggests manufacturing is stalled, but not much worse
than that. The orders recovery loosely backs the strong capital goods component
of the April durable goods report. Exports remain the standout activity component
of the ISM, thanks to the weak US dollar and continued growth in many US
trading partner economies. Jobs remain the weak point. The high prices
component is of course a reflection of rapid commodity price gains.
construction spending was weak at the start of
April though held up somewhat by continued gains in the non-residential sector,
which suggests that the upward revision to that component of Q1 business
investment (revised from â€“6.2% to +1.1% annualised last week) might still have
some legs heading into Q2.
factory PMI was revised up slightly from 50.5 to 50.6
in May. That is still a new cyclical low for the series.
factory PMI slipped further in May to the â€śneutralâ€ť 50
level, though history actually shows that a reading of around 53 is consistent
with flat activity as recorded by the official industrial production data. So
this result implies the factory sector is already slipping into recession.
mortgage lending figures were dire: the number of new
loans fell to just 58k, lower even than at any time during the housing slump in
the early 1990s. That reflects, we suspect, both subdued demand for new
mortgages, and rationed supply due to the credit crunch, and is likely to put
more downward pressure on house prices, which are already falling in annual
terms. Consumer credit growth slowed too. In the past data like these would
have had the Bank of England cutting rates, but this week a cut seems unlikely,
given high headline inflation, rising inflation expectations and the Bankâ€™s
stated acceptance that the economy needs to slow to bring inflation back into
line with the 2% target by the end of this decade.
NZD is in a holding pattern this week ahead of the RBNZ announcement on
Thursday. On that, our economists view the risks as being skewed towards a more
hawkish tone, which would likely see the NZD higher, at least on the day.
Gordon, Market Strategist, Wellington,
Ph: (04) 470 8266 With
contributions from Westpac Economics and Westpac Strategy
Release Last Forecast Aus
Apr Dwelling Approvals â€“5.7% â€“2.0% Q1
Current Account Balance, AUDbn â€“19.3 â€“19.7 Q1
Net Exports Contribution to GDP, ppts â€“1.0 â€“0.7 Q1
Public Spending 2.4% 0.9% RBA
Policy Announcement ()
7.25% 7.25% US
Apr Factory Orders 1.3% 0.5% May
Auto Sales mn annâ€™lsd 14.4 14.3 Eur
Apr PPI %yr 5.7% 6.2% Q1
GDP Revision 0.7% a 0.7% UK
May PMI Construction 46.1 45.8 May
Consumer Confidence 70 65
Research Papers/Publications â€˘
RBNZ MPS Preview (29 May) â€˘
NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (26 May) â€˘
NZ Budget 2008 Review (22 May) â€˘
NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (19 May) â€˘ Housing equity withdrawal and its impact (16 May) â€˘
NZ Budget 2008 Preview (15 May) These
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac Institutional
Bankâ€™s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium- Wed --14:15 GMT-- US- Industrial Production
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Wed -- 15:00 GMT-- CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.