User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Sunday June 8, 2008 - 21:04:09 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

Share This Story:
| | Email

FX Research - Morning Repor

Morning Report Monday 9 June 2008

News and views
The
New Zealand dollar was well and truly sidelined during the Friday night session, despite plenty of action elsewhere. Amid a sharp 380pt fall in equities, an $11/bbl+ rise in crude oil prices to record highs and a 150pt+ surge in the euro the NZD traded a tight 0.7650/0.7699 range. US non farm payrolls provided some brief excitement for the NZD with a much larger than expected rise in the US unemployment rate - from 5.0% to 5.5% - sending NZD up from 0.7675 to just shy of 0.7700 cents. But, the rise proved short-lived. A sharp fall in US equities linked to the surge in oil prices weighed on the high yielders with NZD/EUR and NZD/JPY sales seeing NZD/USD cede its payrolls driven gains. NZD/USD finished the session largely unchanged. Crude oil posted a staggering $11+ rise to USD139.01 highs on Friday night. USD weakness got the ball rolling initially but Israeli Transport Min Mofaz provided the real spark for the oil frenzy with his bellicose comments that an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites looked likely given the lack of success in halting Tehran’s uranium enrichment projects.

The Australian dollar saw a lot more action. After grinding higher in the London morning the AUD/USD spiked to a high of 0.9644 after the weaker than expected US employment report (at least in terms of the unemployment rate – see below). This is just below the post float high of 0.9654 recorded on May 21.

USD/JPY was range bound during the London morning before collapsing on the soft US data and rumours of an Israeli strike on Iran (which saw equities and risk appetite generally lower across asset classes). USD/JPY fell from just above 106 to below 105 overnight.

EUR/USD spiked 100pts on the much larger than expected 0.5% rise in the US unemployment rate to 5.5% and continued to grind higher through the remainder of the session, finishing at 1.5766. USD bears have decisively wrested control of EUR/USD with Bernanke’s hawkish inflation commentary and USD supportive comments earlier this week now a distant memory.

US payrolls down 49k; jobless rates jumps to 5.5%. The big surprise was the jump in the jobless rate from 5.0% to 5.5% in May, steeper than anything we saw in either the early 1990s recession or the 2001 recession. That was partly due to a 285k fall in the separate household jobs survey, but mainly due to an above trend jump in the size of the labour force. It rose by 577k, jobs fell by 285k, so unemployment jumped by a whopping 861k in the month. The BLS explained that the timing of the survey (later in May than typical) would have picked up more school-leavers looking for their first jobs than usual (who would normally be caught in the June survey). That explains why teenage unemployment jumped from 15.4% to 18.7% last month. To the extent that this adjustment issue corrects in June, the jobless rate might edge 0.2 ppts lower, all else being equal. That said, a 0.5 ppt jobless rate jump is unheard of in modern times, yet these sorts of statistical distortions pop up all the time, so a big chunk of the unemployment rate jump is most likely genuine. Indeed the 5.5% level of the jobless rate is broadly consistent with the recent message from continuing unemployment insurance claims, consumer confidence in the labour market and the sluggish pace of GDP growth since Q4 last year. In other words, today’s result corrects for recent downside surprises in the jobless rate. In other news, there was a 1.3% jump in wholesale inventories in April which offsets the negative implications of the flat factory stocks picture for Q2 GDP.

German industrial production down 0.8% in April. IP has now fallen for two months running, consistent with the past five monthly declines in factory orders, and another sign that the Euroland economy won’t be as solid in Q2 as it was in Q1 (when GDP grew 0.8%).

Canadian employment growth of 8k in May remains positive but the trend has clearly slowed. The rising jobless rate is consistent with the economy stalling in Q1 (when GDP growth was –0.3% annualised). The May detail included a steep 34k rise in factory jobs which looks erratic; if that corrects next month, that will probably mean falling total employment. Nothing to prevent a Bank of Canada rate cut next week.

Outlook
The RBNZ’s dramatic shift to forecasting interest rate cuts later this year paves the way for further NZD weakness. Downside risks to the data remain and any positive surprises should be taken as opportunities to sell into strength (next week’s retail sales may well present this opportunity). As always we remain wary of the USD leg, hence our preferred way of being short is on a TWI basis. We have been short the NZ TWI for some time now and would note that the RBNZ indicated there is a risk “...that the exchange rate falls faster and further than we have assumed”.

Our target for the TWI remains 66.00. There are a number of important releases in NZ next week but retail sales on Friday looms as the most important, with a technical bounce expected after the timing of Easter pulled down sales in March. Still the trend in sales growth is expected to remain weak.

Michael Gordon, Market Strategist, Wellington, Ph: (04) 470 8266
With contributions from Westpac Economics and Westpac Strategy

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast

NZ Q1 Building Work Put in Place 3.9% –
Aus Queen’s Birthday Holiday

US Apr Pending Home Sales –1.0% –0.5%
Fedspeak: Bernanke, Geithner, Rosengren
Jpn May Bank Lending %yr 1.2% –
Apr Leading Index 18.2% –
May Economy Watchers Survey 35.5 –
Eur Jun Sentix Investor Confidence 3.5 3.0

UK May Producer Prices %yr 4.6% 4.7%
Can May Housing Starts 214k 218k

Latest Research Papers/Publications
• RBNZ MPS Review (5 June)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (3 June)
• RBNZ MPS Preview (29 May)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (26 May)
• NZ Budget 2008 Review (22 May)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (19 May)
• Housing equity withdrawal and its impact (16 May)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 11 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105