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Monday June 9, 2008 - 16:33:17 GMT
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Forex Blog - U.S. Market Update

Dow +111 S&P +8 NASDAQ -10.6

- The DJIA and S&P have managed to recoup a small portion of Friday's losses, but the Nasdaq remains in the red after volatile trading in early action. Tech seems to have relinquished its leadership role for today as the group weighs on the NASDAQ. AAPL is down more than $3 ahead of the much hyped development forum where the
Co. is expected to present a first look at a 3G iPhone. Lehman preannounced its second quarter results before the bell, reporting a $2.8B loss and confirming expectation that would raise $6B in capital. Moody's wasted no time their outlook to negative from stable, but LEH was defended at both Citigroup and Merrill Lynch. LEH was down more than10% in early action but was trading off its worst levels by mid morning. BCS-3% is continuing its downward slide after announcing over the weekend that it would cut its investment banking workforce and reports circulated it was looking to raise at least £3B from a sovereign investment fund. News was sunnier elsewhere in the finance sector, especially at HRH+42% which was surging after receiving a $46/shr cash and stock buyout offer from WSH-2.5%. CIT+15% was also rising after signing a $3B long-term financing facility with Goldman Sachs. The Dow is getting a real boost from MCD+5% after the fast food giant reported a 7.7% rise in May same-store sales, nearly double estimates. VMW-7.3% was suffering after UBS commented that the company's lock-up period was expiring this week and noted that the “low hanging fruit in sever virtualization” has been picked. CPWM+22% after receiving a $4/shr acquisition offer from Pier 1 Imports in an all-stock deal. In other news, oil producing nations continued their steady drumbeat of commentary on crude, with both Saudi Arabia and the president of OPEC out with comments this morning that speculation and the weak dollar were propping up oil prices. According to the president of OPEC, oil would trade at $70/bbl without speculation, and that the weak USD adds $40/bbl to prices. July crud is seen moving back towards sessin lows down more than 2% as equity markets retest today's highs and the Greenback consolidates gains against the Euro and Yen. Treasury prices have come under pressure as they have kept a close eye of overseas government bond markets. European Bond markets sold off after UK May core PPI rose a striking 1.2%. The U.S. curve has flattened noticeably with the 2-year yield moving back to 2.6% after trading sub 2.4% on Friday morning. The Nov fed fund future now prices in better than 90% odds the Fed raises rates by mid-Fall, up from below 50% following Friday's disappointing unemployment number.

- The USD managed to recover from its recent losses following commentary last week regarding the possibility of an ECB rate hike in July, the higher US unemployment rate and the “super spike” in crude. The EUR/USD probed the 1. 5850 area during the European morning before the Russian Central Bank raised interest rates to combat inflation and chatter circulated that Far Eastern names were defending an option barrier at 1.5850. President Bush later reiterated his mantra that a strong dollar is in the
US's interest. The dollar also benefitted from softer oil prices and improved pending home sales data for April. Dealers also noted that emerging market names were seen selling euros throughout the New York morning above the 1.5740 area. The NY morning low was 1.5661 (a 38% Fibanocci retracement level after the ECB rate decision) before the dollar consolidated its price action. Technical factors also initially capped the USD's soft tone in pre-NY trading, with the GBP/USD spiking higher in the wake of UK PPI data but proving itself unable to sustain momentum to break above the 1.98 area. USD/CAD continues to test the 1.0230 area, with dealers noting USD buy stops building above the 1.0230-50 area. Canadian housing starts came in at 121.3K, slightly above estimates of 120.0K.

The JPY was broadly weaker following comments stating that the Japanese economy may have peaked in March. Key resistance remains at 106.70 level. EUR/JPY benefiting from upside technical momentum as it probed above 167. Support is seen at the 164.70 level.

- European fixed income markets exhibited a high degree of volatility. September Bunds surged at the European open over 100 ticks to trade at 113.39 level before tumbling to 111.50. Dealers noted that the selling could be attributed to outright contract sales and curve flattening entries. Sept Bunds -50 ticks at 111.45; Sept Gilts -90 ticks at 102.34. Euro Stoxx 50 -0.15 at 3,593; FTSE 100 Index -0.3% at 5,888; CAC 40 Index flat at 4,796 and DAX flat at 6,804.


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AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
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A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

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