Tuesday November 9, 2004 - 18:50:54 GMT
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The EUR/USD still looks as if it is not ready to break through 1.3000. After Asian session’s highs, EUR/USD has slid back down closer to 1.2900 rather than 1.300. It opened up the New York session @ 1.2905/10 and has rallied no higher than 1.2930/35. It seems that talk out of Germany again may have had a serious cooling effect as their statement of a 1.3000 level, “posing threats to exporters” and the recent Euro rise as a “cause for concern.” This type of talk has surfaced numerous times as the EUR/USD pair has tested new highs and has calmed the rally thus far. The market is rethinking its position as it is looking hesitant about a higher Euro and any word of U.S. concern at these levels could spark a sharp sell off. Meanwhile USD/JPY opened the morning around 105.75 and has pretty much stayed the course going no higher than 105.85/90 and reached a session low of 105.55/60. USD/JPY still looks as if it could head lower as there a good amount of stops gathering at 105.25 and 105.00, which if triggered could cause a spike down to 104.75. Tomorrow has the possibility of painting a clearer picture as the early morning release of the Trade Balance (-54B) and Initial Claims could point the way, with the FOMC rate decision expected in the afternoon.
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING We see 106.30 as a good point of resistance on a 60min USD/JPY chart and would look to sell any rallies into that range. On the down side, a run down to 105.20 could trigger stops which would could cause the pair to trade down to 105.00 and possibly lower.
GAIN AN EDGE WE look to sell USD/JPY on a move up @ 106.15/25 with a 106/35/45 stop and a take profit of 104.75.
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