User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday November 9, 2004 - 21:23:10 GMT -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Dollar Rallies With Fed Rate Hike Expected

DailyFX Forex Fundamentals 11-09-04

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

· Dollar Rallies As Fed Expected To Raise Rates By Quarter Point
· European Commission Backs Trichet’s Position On Euro
· German Investor Confidence Dips to 23 month low


The euro continues to slide as verbal intervention picks up steam increasing the risk of the retracement in the euro becoming another top. This morning the European Commission backed ECB Trichet’s position on exchange rates. If you recall, yesterday Trichet said that the recent EURUSD moves have been “brutal” and that “brutal moves are not welcome from the standpoint of the ECB.” ECB members Issing, Quaden and Liebscher also chimed in and confirmed their support of Trichet’s stance, adding that a further increase in the euro is undesirable. The EU plans on conducting a meeting to discuss exchange rates next week. The recent volatility is certainly a major concern of theirs and unless market forces allow the euro to retrace, their next logical topic of discussion would be physical intervention. Meanwhile a much weaker than expected German investor confidence survey (ZEW) also dragged the euro lower. The economic expectations index fell close to a 2 year low, well below its historical average of 34.6. There are a lot of reasons for falling confidence in the German economy; industrial production, factory orders and retail sales have been weak. The “experts” surveyed by the ZEW institute expect the lack of significant global growth, last month’s high oil prices and the rally in the euro to hurt external demand for German goods, which could put the already weak recovery at risk of tipping back into a recession.


Two very important data releases tomorrow could hold the fate of the dollar – that is the trade balance for the month of September and the FOMC rate decision. The trade balance is expected to remain at $54 billion in September, which is only a billion shy of the record high. A 19% surge in oil prices during the month of September is expected to drive the value of imports higher, but the increase in imports should be offset to some extent by an improvement in the service deficit. Another unexpected widening could cause result in a dollar sell-off, however losses should be limited as traders remain cautious ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC rate decision. Each of the 89 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a quarter point hike, therefore the actual tightening itself will not lead to any fireworks in the currency markets. The real wildcard is once again the FOMC statement. Many believe that the Fed will leave the word "measured" in their statement, giving them the flexibility to respond to November's economic data. As the Fed suggested in September's statement, the US economy has appeared to have moved out of the spring / summer soft patch. The dollar sold off though despite the rate hike as the market focused on the statement’s easing inflation assessment. The Fed's more optimistic assessment has been difficult to believe with oil prices eventually hitting a high of $55.85 and September payrolls falling to 96k. However, since then oil prices have fallen 13.5% off its highs and payrolls surged to 337k in October. Therefore the dollar should react more positively to a hawkish FOMC statement. More specifically, we would not be surprised if the Fed removed or at least downgraded the significance of energy prices in their statement. Current Fed fund futures are pricing in a 79% chance of a December rate hike. A hawkish statement would tip the scales further in favor of another rate hike in December, which could provide some upside momentum for the US dollar.


Today was another unchanged day in the GBPUSD as dual forces gave both bulls and bears reasons to trade the pound. On a positive note, the UK trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly from –GBP5.2B to –GBP4.5B in September. The lower value of the pound compared to this past summer helped to boost UK exports to non-EU countries. However, the details of the report are not as encouraging given that the UK did become a net oil exporter for the first time in 13 years. Their oil balance fell from a GBP340M surplus to a GBP254M deficit. If oil prices resumes its uptrend, this will become a major cause for concern for the pound. Bears came out of their cave on a report that indicates that retail sales grew by their weakest pace this year. Consumer spending has been one of the remaining areas of strength in the UK economy. The recent weakness indicates that the slowdown in the housing market may have finally hit the pocketbooks of consumers.


The dollar has finally been able to muster a rally against the Japanese yen, despite the fact that the rally was a rather weak one. Verbal intervention by Japanese Finance Minister Tanigaki has given reason for some dollar yen bears to take profits. Traders continue to suspect that the 105-level is a primary focus for the Ministry of Finance. Meanwhile, the data released overnight was bearish for Japan, giving the yen more reason to give it backs recent gains. Business confidence of workers with jobs sensitive to economic trends worsened for the third consecutive month. Typhoons and earthquakes have dampened consumer sentiment. As a result, Japanese consumer confidence is expected to be weaker in the month of October.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105