User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday June 13, 2008 - 00:30:57 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

Share This Story:
| | Email

FX Blog - Morning Report

Morning Report Friday 13 June 2008

News and views
The USD continued to muscle its way higher across the board sending the New Zealand dollar down 0.5% in overnight trade. From early offshore highs of 0.7541 the NZD traded down to 0.7481 lows. The USD opened offshore trading on the front foot, boosted by a mix positives including falling oil prices, rumours that US retail trade data later in the day would print on the strong side and earlier news that Belgium Brewer InBev made $46.3bn offer for US based Budweiser. The Philly Fed’s Plosser made a compelling case for the inflation hawks and said that it is “certainly clear that rates will have to rise”, adding to the USD demand. US retail sales did not disappoint beating already elevated expectations with a 1.2% rise ex-autos and sending US 2 year notes up 18bp on the day. The NZD hit its session lows in the immediate wake of the US retail data but option barrier interest around 0.7480 contained further downside. Ahead of NZ retail sales today the NZD is trading a touch above its session lows at 0.7500.

The Australian dollar extended its slide following the softer than expected employment data. Amid broad USD demand the AUD traded down a further 0.4% through the offshore session to a low of 0.9331, its lowest levels since mid-May.

USD/JPY broke up through 108.00 on USD strength, the first time it has regained the 108 handle since late February. A break above 108.75 would take the pair to its highest level since early January.

EUR/USD lurched from just below 1.5500 opening levels overnight to 1.5380 session lows. Falling oil prices and surging US bond yields continues to weigh on EUR sentiment. In afternoon US trading a major US investment bank caused a stir revising its Fed Funds forecast, calling for the FOMC to lift rates 25bps in Sep 2008 and to 3.75% by the end of 2009. The ECB Bulletin overnight cemented expectations for an ECB hike in July. Oil prices rose USD5/bbl in afternoon NY trade to finish the day square but EUR paid little attention. We wouldn’t overstate it but concerns that the Irish will vote “no” in a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty have perhaps weighed on EUR to the extent the results highlight political divisions in the region. Results will be results tomorrow.

US retail surge 1% in May. Retail sales data for May were much stronger than the weekly reports through the month suggested would be the case. Also, upward revisions to March and April added a further 0.9 ppts to the retail headline, meaning the level of sales in May was 1.9% higher than what was originally reported for April. Of the 14 major storetypes, only one recorded a decline (miscellaneous) compared to, for example, 8 out of 14 back in Feb. Thanks to the upward revisions and May strength, core retailing posted a 6.8% annualised gain in the three months to May, its strongest read since 7.1% in May-July last year. The obvious plausible factor behind this retail strength is the tax rebate cheques which would have given households who have submitted their tax returns $1000 or more cash to spend since late April. As the data stand, they mean that consumer spending will make a bigger contribution to Q2 GDP growth than we thought likely, almost certainly ensuring another positive quarterly growth outcome.

US initial jobless claims up 25k to 384k. The labour market continued to weaken in late May/early June. The Memorial Day holiday a few weeks back may have heightened recent volatility in initial claims but continuing claims rose to fresh 4+ year highs, consistent with rising unemployment which we believe will ultimately weigh against the prospect that retail strength might persist.

US import prices posted another steep energy-driven rise in May of 2.3% although ex fuel, the gain was muted at 0.5% relative to March and April’s 1% gains, perhaps reflecting recent US$ stability after the steep depreciation seen earlier this year.

US business inventories started Q2 with a decent 0.5% rise, reflecting a 0.4% gain at retailers despite two consecutive months when auto dealer retail stocks have fallen, on top of previously reported flat factory and 1.3% higher wholesale stocks ion April.

Fedspeak: The Philly Fed’s Plosser has been on the warpath today, claiming it is “certainly clear that rates will have to rise”. He voted against the full extent of the last two rate cuts, along with the Dallas Fed’s Fisher.

Euroland industrial production up 0.9% in April. The factory sector enjoyed a solid start to Q2, consistent with recent national data. This news can only add to the building case that the ECB acts on its “heightened alertness” and tightens rates in July.

Outlook
Retail sales data out later this morning looms large for the NZD. After a weak Mar, impacted by the timing of Easter, we expect to see a decent 1% rebound, although the underlying trend is expected to remain weak. NZD losses this week have been limited primarily to the USD axis but sentiment toward the currency remains generally poor since last week’s dovish RBNZ assessment. We continue to advocate a case for broader losses. We continue to target a test of 66 for the NZ TWI.

Michael Gordon, Market Strategist, Wellington, Ph: (04) 470 8266
With contributions from Westpac Economics and Westpac Strategy

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast

NZ Apr Retail Sales –1.2% 1.0%
Aus RBA Governor Stevens speech
US May Consumer Price Index 0.2% 0.4%
May CPI Core 0.1% 0.2%Jun UoM Consumer Sentiment 59.8 57.0
Jpn Bank of
Japan Meeting 0.50% 0.50%
Eur Q1 Unit Labour Costs %yr 2.7% 2.9%
Can Apr Manufacturing Shipments –1.6% –0.4%
Q1 Labour Productivity –0.8% –0.2%

Latest Research Papers/Publications
• Always look on the bright side (12 June)
• NZ Q1 Terms of Trade (11 June)
• NZ Agribiz June 2008 (9 June)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (9 June)
• RBNZ MPS Review (5 June)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (3 June)
• RBNZ MPS Preview (29 May)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.


 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105