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Wednesday June 18, 2008 - 12:30:20 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 18-June-2008....1221 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY

by registering at
http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
---------------------

 

USD-CHF @ 1.0424/29.... Not much has changed
---------------------------------------------

R: 1.0475-85 / 1.0525-40 / 1.0601
S: 1.0380-90 / 1.0345 / 1.0332
Nothing much has changed in the view for the pair as only a spike as high as 1.0472
was seen in the day. The pair has come off since to 1.0450 levels. With no data Releases scheduled for the US session today, no big moves are expected either. The immediate view is currently unclear as the pair is trading in a decreasing range (High–Low) for the last four consecutive days.

As seen on the Daily Line chart at http://kshitij.com/graphgallery/chfma.shtml the pair has not seen a close above the red trendline and so is still not outright bullish. However, on the downside a strong Support is expected at 1.0380 on the break of which the target for the pair could be revised downwards to 1.0250-00. A close above 1.0500, if seen, could target 1.07, in line with our view earlier. 
 

GBP-USD @ 1.9525/30... Resistance at 1.9600
-------------------------------------------

R: 1.9590 / 1.9650 / 1.9700
S: 1.9500 / 1.9435-10 / 1.9370
Cable faced Resistance on a rise to 1.9580 and has come off since to test levels of
1.9478. However, it did not sustain below 1.9500 for long and is currently trading close to 1.9525. Support is expected at 1.9435 if 1.9478 breaks. Resistance is expected on any rally beyond 1.9590-1.9650.

As no data releases are scheduled for the US session, we believe that calm will be maintained in the market. Earlier in the day, the MPC minutes revealed a vote of 8-1 to hold rates in the last meting to decide the interest rate.


 
AUD-USD @ 0.9404/08... Support seen at 0.9390
-------------------------------------------

R: 0.9445 / 0.9480-9515
S: 0.9390-9385 / 0.9360-50
Aussie has had a slight slip in the day and currently trades near 0.9404. It is t
rading close to the Support on the 4-hrly chart and a bounce is expected from here if the rally to 0.9500 is to resume. If a bounce is not seen a dip to 0.9365 could be possible, however, it should be seen only as an opportunity to enter a fresh Long at a better level.

For now a small upward channel formation can be seen at http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml and believe it should hold for now.

Holding:
Long AUD 10K at 0.9390, SL 0.9390, TP 0.9490
Long AUD 10K at 0.9410, SL 0.9390 (up from 0.9370), TP 0.9460

Limit Buy Order:
Long AUD 20K at 0.9376, SL 0.9350 and 0.9307 for 10K each, TP 0.9530 for 20K

 

Happy Trading!
 

 

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