Friday May 14, 2004 - 18:18:07 GMT
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GFT Forex Market Commentary for Friday, May 14, 2004 8:00 GMT
Daily Forex Market Commentary for Friday, May 14, 2004 8:00 GMT
Daily Commentary By: Cornelius Luca (http://www.gftforex.com/resources/daily.asp?date=5142004)
The dollar advanced across the board on Thursday with little regard to mixed retail sales and PPI reports. It scored its best performance against the yen, but there is a risk the European currencies will fall sharply as well. Expect choppy trading on Friday amid a series of US economic reports. The market is long dollars, so some profit taking before the weekend is possible.
Euro/dollar sank on Thursday and posted its lowest close in six months. The pair continues to hold below the strong resistance of its 20-day moving average, now at a distant 1.1923.
Below the two significant lows at 1.1771 and 1.1759, the euro/dollar has support at 1.1659. A break below would signal a decline to 1.1600.
Above 1.1860 the euro/dollar has resistance from the strong resistance at 1.1908. Further resistance lies at 1.1938 and from the 200-day moving average at 1.1975. An unexpected break higher would likely accelerate the upmove to 1.2000.
Oscillators are mixed.
Dollar/yen made an explosive rally outside Monday’s range and hit a new high for the uptrend at 114.67, virtually reaching the upside target of the 114.20 50-point pivot. It should drastically slow down its advance and even edge lower on profit taking.
Above 114.70, the pair has resistance at 115.50 from a 50-point pivot that targets 115.00 and 116.00.
Dollar/yen has support at 114.20 and then at 113.70. A break lower would target another 50-point pivot at 112.90 that targets 113.40 and 112.40.
Oscillators are rising.
Sterling/dollar is seemingly following a “yo-yo” pattern: one day up and one day down, so it headed lower on Thursday, but kept in an inside range.
The pair has support at 1.7560 and a break lower would signal a decline to 1.7531. Further support comes at 1.7465 and then at 1.7444. A slide to 1.7354 is unlikely.
Sterling/dollar has initial resistance at 1.7670 and a break higher would target 1.7795 from its declining 20-day moving average. Further resistance comes at 1.7873. A break higher would target 1.7950 and even 1.8016.
Oscillators are mixed.
Dollar/Swiss franc rallied to a two-week high on Thursday and closed above its 20-day moving average, now at around 1.2983 despite trimming its gains.
Above 1.3085, Thursday’s high, the pair still has good resistance at 1.3100. Further strength would target 1.3160 and then the pivotal resistance at 1.3226.
If the pair heads lower on profit taking, expect a test at 1.2956. A break lower would target 1.2920. Further support comes at 1.2874 and then at 1.2836. There is a pivotal support at 1.2692.
Oscillators are mixed.
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
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