User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday June 19, 2008 - 21:49:07 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

Share This Story:
| | Email

Foreign Exchange News - Morning Report

Morning Report   Friday 20 June 2008

 

News and views

The New Zealand dollar bucked the broader USD trend overnight hitting 8 day highs near 0.7625. Demand for carry was a notable driver of overnight price action with both AUD and NZD pushing convincingly higher against the likes of JPY and CHF. EUR traded with a heavy tone overnight despite softer prints on US jobless claims and the Philly Fed business survey suggesting that the NZD’s move overnight was more stop-loss driven than anything else. The NZD was fairly subdued through Europe holding in a 0.7570-90 range but the arrival of US players on the scene saw a range of commodities and the AUD break higher giving the NZD cover for a successful test of 0.7600 and a squeeze to 0.7620/25 in short order. The NZD opens the day at 0.7628.

 

The Australian dollar marched steadily higher overnight in line with broad strength across the dollar bloc. A USD10/oz+ rally in gold prices and firmer base metals saw the AUD rise from offshore opening levels near 0.9470 through stops just above 0.9500 and onto highs near 0.9520.

 

USD/JPY was lifted from lows around 107.45 toward 108.00 against the backdrop of a weaker EUR in early European dealings. Demand for higher yielding pairs like AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY provided some modest support for USD/JPY too, but beyond that USD/JPY saw only passing interest overnight

 

A lack of interest either way saw EUR pushed around by other European currencies. A much stronger than expected read on UK retail sales prompted heavy EUR/GBP selling while EUR was dragged lower by CHF in the wake of the SNBs decision to lift leave interest rates steady. That saw EUR/USD slide from 1.5580 to lows near 1.5480 through Europe. The US session was relatively uneventful. Softer than expected US data (see below) was mostly ignored as was the near USD8/bbl slide in crude oil prices after China announced that was removing subsidies on a range of fuels. By the US close EUR recovered back to 1.5500.

 

US Philadelphia Fed index slips from –15.6 to –17.1 in Jun. The Philly Fed survey found modest slippage in local factory bosses’ sentiment, led by weaker readings for orders, shipments and jobs. The less reliable outlook index also slipped. At the same time, the prices measure continued to climb, reflecting the ongoing upwards march of commodity prices.

 

US leading index up 0.1% in May. The leading index has been non-negative for the past three months, after a succession of five monthly declines through Q4 and earlier this year. Hence the annualised pace of decline of the index is diminishing. That suggests that US economic growth is likely to remain anaemic in coming quarters, but maybe not recessionary. In May, the main positives were stock prices and the interest rate spread, mostly offset by negatives from money supply, consumer expectations, building permits and supplier deliveries.

 

US initial claims down 5k to 381k. Claims held onto most of the prior week’s jump, and in so doing extended their recent up-trend, suggesting that layoffs are slowly increasing. Continuing claims dipped more sharply than usual in the prior week, although there could be some sort of post- Memorial Day distortion at play there.

 

UK retail sales jump 3.5% in May. Retail sales posted their largest one month jump in nearly thirty years in May! However we see the number as distorted and fully expect it be reversed by a steep fall in sales in June. That is because last month was the warmest May on record. That means that people were out and about shopping, especially for summer clothing that they would normally wait until June to buy. And indeed the report showed clothing sales up 9.2% in the month. So the increase in spending was exaggerated by the seasonal factors.

 

Canadian CPI jumps to 2.2% yr in May. A 5.5% jump in energy prices and a 1.0% rise in food prices in May pushed the headline annual CPI back above the 2% midpoint of the BoC’s 1-3% target range for the first time since Jan (when it was also up 2.2% yr). However to date there is little obvious impact on underlying inflation pressures, with the core rate unchanged last month at 1.5% yr.

 

Outlook

The contrast in market pricing between RBNZ easing and rate hikes elsewhere has begun to moderate, leaving room for the NZD to squeeze a little higher ahead of next week’s data and FOMC meeting. However, a decent amount of short positions have been cleared out in recent sessions, and the market is still inclined to sell the NZD against the backdrop of a likely negative GDP print next Friday and the RBNZ’s clear intention to cut rates later in the year. External migration data for May is due later this morning.

 

Michael Gordon, Market Strategist, Wellington, Ph: (04) 470 8266

With contributions from Westpac Economics and Westpac Strategy

 

Upcoming Events

Date Country Release Last Forecast

20 Jun NZ May External Migration ann. 4,666 4,322

Ger May PPI %yr 5.2% 5.8%

Can Apr Retail Sales 0.1% 0.3%

23 Jun NZ May Credit Card Transactions 4.4% –

Eur Jun Factory PMI Adv 50.6 50.3

Jun Services PMI Adv 50.6 51.0

Ger Jun Ifo Business Climate Index 103.5 101.5

24 Jun US Apr House Prices %yr –14.4% –16.0%

Jun CB Consumer Confidence 57.2 56.0

 

Latest Research Papers/Publications

• NZ Q1 GDP Preview (19 June)

• NZ Q1 Current Account Preview (19 June)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (16 June)

• Always look on the bright side (12 June)

• NZ Q1 Terms of Trade (11 June)

• NZ Agribiz June 2008 (9 June)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (9 June)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 20 June 2008. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105