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Thursday November 11, 2004 - 13:58:57 GMT

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GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary for Thursday, November 11, 2004

GFT Commentary by Cornelius Luca, currencies analyst, Global Forex Trading (source:

On a background of falling oil prices, rising stocks and tightening borrowing costs in the US, rumors of covert central bank intervention and overt threats from European officials to intervene and weaken currencies all helped but a floor under the dollar. The European currencies reluctantly gave back their gains after coining new highs for their uptrend, while yen sank aggressively and triggered a medium-term buy signal.


Euro/dollar further hit a new record high of 1.3005 on Wednesday before retracing aggressively to close unchanged. This weakness matched the strong bearish reversal signal on the daily candlestick chart provided in yesterday’s report.

The pair must now challenge and break below the support between 1.2850 and 1.2840. If successful in penetrating this area, then the euro/dollar should test the support between 1.2825 and 1.2800. A break below this area would signal the end of the uptrend. However, it will take a break below 1.2755 to signal an aggressive decline into next week and to 1.2685. Once again, a break below this level would signal a retest of the 1.2630 low.

If it can resume its old uptrend, then the euro/dollar will re-test the resistance at 1.2950 and possibly even the 1.3005 peak. Should the rally accelerate, then the euro/dollar could stretch as high as the 1.3085 area, but this remains unlikely.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish


Dollar/yen rallied sharply on Wednesday and this recovery was in line with the signal from the candlestick chart. Only two days after slumping to 105.27, the pair surged to above the 107.00 mark and closed above the 20-day moving average for the first time in a month. This closing adds to the budding positive outlook.

The upmove was accelerated by the 50-point pivot at 106.75, which targets 106.25 and 107.25, and whose upper target was reached on Wednesday. Above 107.25, resistance comes at 107.67. A break above this level would signal a further stretch to 108.20.

The 50-point pivot at 106.75 provides good support and if it gives way, then look for a slide to the area between 106.25 and 106.10. Distant support now comes from the 105.60 50-point pivot, which targets 105.10 and 106.10.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish


Sterling/dollar continued to show its sensitive side on Wednesday, when it fell from a new high for the uptrend and mounted the sharpest decline seen among the European currencies. This time, the bearish reversal signal on the daily candlestick chart worked out and the pair alleviated its overbought condition.

The pair must make a convincing break below the support at 1.8500, but in order to increase the confidence that the uptrend is over, cable must close below 1.8435. If successful, the sterling/dollar will then challenge the nearby level at 1.8415 and a break lower would open the doors to a test of the support at 1.8370. Distant support remains at 1.8300.

If it recovers, the pound will challenge the resistance between 1.8540 and 1.8560. A break above this area would mean that the uptrend had resumed and a test of the 1.8615 top would be in order. A move above this peak would suggest a test of the resistance at 1.8660. Distant resistance remains at 1.8770.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc managed to recoup all of its losses after sinking to a new 8 1/2-year low of 1.1694 on Wednesday.

If it manages to recover further, which is to be expected, dollar/Swiss franc must break above the resistance between 1.1870 and 1.1900 initially, and then 1.1940, and then attempt to retest the resistance at 1.2000. Further resistance remains between 1.2090 and 1.2115. Once again, a break above this area would signal a further rally to 1.2200.

If the decline resumes, then the pair would break below 1.1760 and challenge its new low of 1.1694. A break below this level would signal a further decline to the distant support remains at 1.1620.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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