Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Share This Story
Forex Blog - European Market Update: German IFO Declines; French and Euro-Zone PMI Figures Signal Contraction ***
ECONOMIC DATA ***
¬∑UK June Rightmove House Prices: M/M -1.2% v 1.2%
prior; Y/Y 0.1% v 2.2% prior
¬∑FR June Preliminary Manufacturing PMI:
49.2 v 51.0e
¬∑FR June Preliminary Services PMI: 49.2 v 50.
¬∑GE June Advanced Manufacturing PMI: 52.3 v 53.2e
Advanced Service PMI: 53.3 v 53.1e
¬∑GE June Business Climate: 101.3
¬∑GE June Current Assessment: 108.3 v 109.0
Expectations: 94.7 v 96.3e || Prior revised from 97.3 to 97.2
June Advanced Manufacturing PMI: 49.1 v 50.2e
¬∑EU June Advanced
Services PMI: 49.5 v 50.5e
¬∑EU June Advanced Composite PMI: 49.5 v
¬∑*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
¬∑In equity news overnight SCS Upholstery [SUY.UK] announced
overnight that it received an approach, noting that due diligence is
underway. TDG [TDG.UK] confirmed that it is still in talks with Laxey,
noting that the extension has been granted to give Laxey the time to
finalize the financing for the offer. Weir Group [WEIR.UK] announced
overnight that it will divide its operations into three divisions. The
company also forecasted that they will report their FY pretax at the upper
end of consensus expectations Aggreko [AGK.UK] noted that 1H trading has
been strong, adding that they see their FY08 profit above market
expectations. Bunge (BG) confirmed the Wall Street Journal report
overnight that it will acquired Corn Products (CPO) for $56/share. The
total value of the acquisition is $4.8B including the assumption of $414M
in Corn Products' debt. Bunge also to raised its FY08 guidance to $9.35-$9.
65, up from the previous range of $7.10-$7.40. The current consensus for
FY08 is $7.70.
¬∑In the newspapers, according to the Wall Street
Journal Citigroup (C) is expected to announce job cuts in its investment
banking unit; As much as 10% (6,500 jobs) of the company's investment
banking unit could be cut. The Financial Times reported that art sales in
June are expected to hit a new record. Both Sotheby's (BID) and Christie's
may sell a combined $790M of art during the period. The Independent wrote
that KKR (KFN) may be mulling a bid for Babcock & Brown [BNB.AU] The
Financial Times noted overnight that Rio Tinto [RIO.AU] and BHP [BHP.AU]
have asked their Chinese clients to accept record price increases for iron
ore or risk supply interruptions. Der Spiegel wrote overnight that Lloyds
TSB [LLOY.UK] has made a non-binding bid for Allianz's [ALV.GE] Dresdner
Bank unit. The Financial Times wrote overnight that Goldman Sachs (GS) is
expected to cut as much as 10% of its investment banking workforce. The
Wall Street Journal reported overnight that over the past few weeks bank
executives have encountered unexpected resistance from investors as they
seek to raise capital
¬∑In energy news overnight the Times wrote
that OPEC could seek to raise production following the Jeddah oil meeting.
The Times report, which cites sources, said that other OPEC countries in
addition to Saudi Arabia, may seek to raise their output levels. According
to source reports Nigerian rebel group MEND reportedly declared a
unilateral ceasefire; Effective on Tuesday at midnight. A Haaretz article
downplayed Friday's New York Times report about an Israeli military drill
that could have been preparation for a future attack on Iran. The Haaretz
article noted that Israel has not made any decisions on Iran and that the
country was preparing for a potential worst-case scenario. According to the
Lundberg Survey, the price for a regular gallon of US gasoline was $4.10
(record); The survey notes that gasoline prices may start to move lower due
to more oil coming onto the market Colombia's Cano Limon oil pipeline (225K
bpd) has been reportedly attacked by rebels. In a radio interview
overnight OPEC President Khelil said he does not see demand on world oil
market for extra production output, adding that OPEC and Non-OPEC producers
can only raise output if there is a demand for more oil. Khelil said that
oil prices will remain high until end of 2008, and, when asked, noted that
he does not believe that oil will rapidly hit $200/barrel. Khekil point out
that oil prices will fluctuate due to geopolitics, USD and ECB interest
¬∑In fixed income news overnight, orders for
Belgium's 5-year Dollar benchmark bond are reportedly over $1.0B. According
to the Times' Economics Editor, the Bank of England's most recent comments
on interest rates were intended to be neutral, and were not an attempt to
signal early rate hikes. The Financial Times wrote overnight that,
according to former Fed Governor Larry Meyer, recent hawkish talk by the
Fed represents a "conditional commitment" to raise rates if the sources of
inflation risk deteriorate, but the market has problems distinguishing this
from an "unconditional signal that policy tightening is imminent". The
Financial Times noted overnight that various US bond insurers are talking
with bankers about cancelling out $125B of credit default swap contracts.
The swaps were sold by bond insurers to banks. The Financial Times reported
overnight that UK wage settlements may become a threat to the government's
¬∑In currencies the USD was broadly firmer against
the majors as evidence of slower economic growth appeared in Europe. The
EUR/USD probed the 1.5500 level after French PMI data showed that a
contraction is occurring in both its manufacturing and service sectors,
while German IFO data came in below expectations. IFO members were divided
on the position of whether the ECB needs to enact further policy tightening.
The GBP was softer after MPC hawk Sentence lightened his view on inflation.
The GBP/USD was down 100 pips at 1.9650 after Sentence noted that slower
economic growth should help to bring inflation back towards the 2.0% target
¬∑On the speaker front, the Swiss State Secretariat for
Economic Affairs (SECO) left its 2008 GDP forecast unchanged at 1.9%, and
cut its 2009 GDP forecast to 1.3% from 1.5%. SECO raised the 2008 CPI
forecast to 2.5% from 1.7%. The agency also forecasted the 2008
unemployment at 2.5%, and the 2009 unemployment at 2.6%, and said that that
prolonged financial market turmoil is main risk for the economy. Elsewhere
on the Swiss front the Swiss KOF institute cut its 2008 GDP growth forecast
to 2.0% from its previous forecast of 2.1%, and cut its 2009 forecast to 1.
8% from 2.0%. The KOF raised its 2008 CPI forecast to 2.6% from its
previous forecast of 1.7%, and raise the 2009 CPI forecast to 1.4% from 1.
1%> the KOF also noted that they expect the SNB to adopt a ‚Äúwait-and-
see‚ÄĚ policy stance. The ECB's Liebscher said overnight that Post-July rate
decisions hinge on the future noting that the ECB must maintain its 'tough'
stance as inflation is 'alarming'. Liebscher said that there is some
chance that second round effects will materialize, and reiterated that
inflation will persist much longer than previously thought. Liebscher also
said that he does not trust that slower GDP will tame inflation. The BOE's
Sentance said that the BOE must ensure that commodity price inflation does
not become broad base. Sentance added that wages must not rise in line with
the temporary increase in headline inflation. Sentance asserted that weaker
UK housing market and economy will offset rising prices over the next year.
Sentance added on noting that CPI has not noticeably affected wage demands,
ressuring that the BOE will take CPI to 2.0% in a ‚Äúreasonable time frame‚ÄĚ.
Furthermore Sentence said that slower growth will help to offset inflation
pressure. The head of the Federation of German Industries (BDI) reiterated
the BDI's 2008 German GDP forecast of 2.0% overnight. The BDI head added
that German industries benefit from the strong Euro. Following the release
of the IFO sentiment index the IFO's Abberger said that he sees no room for
a significant ECB rate hike. Abberger said the he does not see any signs of
a recession in Germany, adding that German firms are suffering from high
oil prices. The IFO's Nerb said that Euro strength is weighing on
companies' margins and exports. Furthermore Nerb added that economic
conditions do not warrant an ECB rate hike, noting that it does make much
sense for the ECB to raise rates.
¬∑*** NOTES ***
Evans-Pritchard wrote in the Telegraph overnight about the Irish vote on
the Lisbon treaty, as well as speculation that Poland and the Czech
Republic would not ratify the treaty. He drove the point that ‚Äúthe survival
of EMU does not depend on Lisbon as such, although the failure of the
treaty would make it harder for the EU to orchestrate a covert bail out,
but there is a deeper issue at stake. As the Bundesbank warned long ago,
EMU will eventually buckle under strain over time without the cement of
political union. This means a de facto EU treasury, a unified wage system,
and the plausible prospect of a debt and pensions pool. None of this exists.
Nor will it.‚ÄĚ As noted over the previous couple of weeks developments
related to the Lisbon Treaty could have major implications for the future
of the Euro-Area.
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a
product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is
for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment
advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed
reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete
2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be
delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread,
misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are
willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6.
Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing
additional information. Trade The News is not liable
(financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities
involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a
regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Register To Test Your Amazing Trader
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 23 July 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube
Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.