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Friday November 12, 2004 - 10:40:58 GMT
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FOREX: US OPEN MARKET POINTS 11-12-04

Yen and Euro - Growth Contracts all Over

GDP night for both yen and the euro and the numbers are weak. In Japan the preliminary Q3 data prints a woefully small 0.3% versus 2.1% anticipated - a far cry from the 6.3% growth rates posted at the beginning of the year. The data is not surprising given the fact that a string of recent economic releases from Household Spending to Eco Watchers survey to last night Machine Orders data all reported worse than expected results. What is surprising however, is yen’s strength versus the dollar despite a slew of economic reports that clearly point to a slowdown and even a possible recession in the Land of the Rising Sun. After retracing almost all of yesterday gains to trade back below the 106 handle, USD/JPY barely budged off the poor GDP news trading in a 20 pip range for the rest of the night. Some analysts attributed yen strength to an article in Nikkei Financial Daily that said US will tolerate a weaker dollar, possibly all the way down to 90 yen level while others saw the 15% decline in oil over the past two weeks as a strong yen bullish factor and chose to ignore the present weak economic data. To all the yen bulls we only say trade at your own peril. We remain convinced that Japanese authorities will not tolerate a quick drop to the 90 level or for that matter even parity, as such massive yen appreciation will crush the Japanese export sector and send the country into a possible recession. As for oil, we note that while prices have receded from record highs, they’ve hardly collapsed and are still well above their summertime levels. All in all, the fundamental picture for the yen remains guarded at best, but for the time being the market does not care as dollar bearishness controls all price action.

In the Euro-zone, the GDP prints slightly worse than expected at 1.9% versus 2.0% with Italy’s GDP beating consensus (0.4% vs. 0.3%) while both France (0.1% vs. 0.4%) and Germany (0.1% vs. 0.3%) miss materially. However, just as with the yen, the euro shrugs off the news and stays well bid as market sentiment remains steadfastly negative towards the dollar. USD bulls will have one last chance today to make their stand if the Advanced Retail Sales and U of Michigan Consumer Confidence reports register better than expected results. We continue to believe that EUR/USD is poised for a retrace, but are also mindful of John Maynard Keynes famous dictum that markets can stay irrational a lot longer than traders can maintain their capital.
FX Spot Overnight
- EUR hold 2900 trading 25 pip range
- JPY tests 106 handle several times, buyer below
- GBP trades off 8490 in quiet trade absent any news
- CHF mirrors euro action

Upcoming Events

- 13:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Advance Retail Sales (OCT) Expected 0.1%, Previous 1.5%
- 13:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Retail Sales Less Autos (OCT) Expected 0.5%, Previous 0.6%
- 14:45GMT – (9:45 AM EST) USD U. of Michigan Confidence (NOV P) Expected 93, Previous 91.7
- 15:00GMT – (10:00 AM EST) USD Business Inventories (SEP) Expected 0.5%, Previous 0.7%

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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