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Friday June 27, 2008 - 10:36:03 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Crude Oil Forges Ahead in European Trading


·FR May Producer Prices: M/M 1.3% v 0.6%e || Prior revised from 0.7% to 0.8% |||| Y/Y 6.7% v 5.9%e || Prior revised from 5.4% to 5.6%

·FR Q1 Final GDP: Q/Q 0.5% v 0.6%e || Y/Y 2.0% v 2.2%e

·SP May Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -5.3% v -4.1%e

·SP June Preliminary Harmonized CPI Y/Y: 5.1% v 5.0%e

·(highest since records began in January of 1997)

·IT June Retailers' Confidence: 107.3 v 102.8 prior || Prior revised from 102.8 to 102.9

·IT June Services Survey: 14 v 19 prior

·SW May Retail Sales: M/M 0.9% v 1.1%e || Y/Y 1.3% v 1. 9%e

·IT Apr Large Company Employment: 0.0% v 0.2% prior

·EU Apr Current Account: -¬300M v -¬15.3B prior || Prior revised from -¬15.3B to -¬13.2B

·EU Apr Current Account nsa: -¬9.2B v -¬7.8B prior || Prior revised from -¬7.8B to -¬5.7B

·GE June Brandenburg CPI: M/M 0. 3% v 0.5% prior || Y/Y 3.4% v 3.1% prior

·UK Q1 Final GDP: Q/Q 0.3% v 0.4%e || Y/Y 2.3% v 2.5%e

·UK Q1 Current Account: -£8.4B v -£12. 1Be || Prior revised from -£8.5B to -£12.2B

·EU June Business Climate Indicator: 0.14 v 0.40e || Prior revised from 0.54 to 0. 58

·EU June Consumer Confidence: -17 v -16e

·EU June Economic Confidence: 94.9 v 96.5e || Prior revised from 97.1 to 97.6

·EU June Industrial Confidence: -5 v -3e

·EU June Services Confidence: 9 v 7e

·IT May Hourly Wages: M/M 0.6% v 0.2%e || Y/Y 3.3% v 2. 8%e

·SZ June KOF Leading Indicator: 1.01 v 1.00e || Prior revised from 1.09 to 1.08


·In the newspapers overnight the Times wrote overnight that HSBC [HSBA.UK] will require some borrowers to pay arrangement fees of up to £10K for loans. The arrangement fees are now 35% higher than prior levels. According to Estado
Brazil and Venezuela are expected to sign 2 energy agreements - Estado. The agreements will be related to Petrobras (PBR) buying LNG from Petroleos de Venezuela. The Financial Times reported overnight that Verizon (VZ) is looking to acquire the 45% stake in Verizon Wireless that is owned by Vodafone [VOD.UK] The Independent wrote overnight that officials in Germany may seek to block the proposed merger between Taylor Nelson [TNS.UK] and GfK [GFK.GE] La Repubblica noted overnight that Generali [G.IT] is looking to spend ¬1B on acquisitions in Eastern Europe.

·The rise in crude seemed to be a self fulfilling prophecy as crude broke the $141-handle overnight. The Wall Street Journal looked at the viewpoints of executives at
Saudi Arabia's ARAMCO overnight. One official, Sadad al-Husseini believes that the world faces a reality of depleting oil supplies and continued rising prices, while Nansen Saleri believes that, with enough creativity and investment, a lot more oil can be discovered.

·In new supply overnight
Italy sold ¬500M in floating rate notes with an average yield of 4.98% and a bid-to-cover of 2.99x, ¬3. 0B in 3.75% February 2011 bonds with an average yield of 4.81% and a bid-to- cover of 1.42x, and ¬2.5B in 4.50% August 2018 bonds with an average yield of 5.08% and a bid-to-cover of 1.45x. Fitch took various actions on MBIA- Related U.S. structured finance bonds overnight. Fitch withdrew its ratings for 157 MBIA-wrapped ABS bonds, 45 MBIA-wrapped RMBS bonds, and 7 MBIA- wrapped CDO bonds.

·In currencies, USD sentiment high commodity prices continued to weigh on USD sentiment as WTI crude made fresh all-time highs above $141.70/barrel. Crude's drive higher was prompted by buy-stop orders kicking in above the $140-level. Crude seems desire to fulfill some analysts estimates of hitting $150 by the July 4th holiday in the States. The EUR/USD was trading around 1.5780 and nearing an alleged option barrier at 1.5800. Some risk aversion was seen in the currencies as carry-related pairs moved lower as European equities exhibited a second day of +1% losses. The EUR/JPY retraced from fresh all-time highs made on Thursday of 169.44 to move back below the 168 handle. The GBP/JPY was lower by 140 pips below the 211 level. The EUR/CHF was softer by 65 pips around 1.6060. The CHF was aided by comments from the Russian central Bank noting a possible desire to increase its holding of CHF in its currency reserves.

·All was quiet on the speaker front with the exception of comment from the ECB's Ordonez who said overnight that an ECB rate hike is possible but is not certain. Ordonez added that oil prices make life difficult for central bank, noting that record oil prices are bad for inflation front and economic growth. Orzonez added that the latest PMI data was disappointing.


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