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Monday June 30, 2008 - 10:43:36 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Euro-Zone CPI Estimate Hits All Time High at 4.0%



·*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

·UK June GfK Consumer Confidence: -34 v -31e

·SP Apr Current Account: - €7.83B v - €12.0B prior

·IT May PPI: M/M 1.5% v 0.9%e || Y/Y 7.5% v 6.8%e

·Both readings are the highest since records began in January of 2002

·NO May Retail Sales: M/M 1.2% v 0.2%e || Y/Y 6.1% v 4. 1%e

·UK May M4 Money Supply: M/M 0.4% v 0.4% prior || Y/Y 10.0% v 10. 0% prior

·UK May M4 Sterling Lending: £4.8B v £4.8B prior

·UK May Net Consumer Credit: £1.4B v £1.0Be || Prior revised from £900M to £1. 1B

·UK May Net Lending Secured on Dwellings: £4.1B v £6.0Be || Prior revised from £6.4B to £6.2B

·UK May Mortgage Approvals: 42K v 51Ke

·Lowest since records began in 1999

·UK May Index of Services: 0.3% v 0.3%e || Prior revised from 0.5% to 0.3%

·EU June CPI-Estimate: 4.0% v 3.9%e

·Highest since records began in November of 2002

·IT June Preliminary CPI: M/M 0.4% v 0.3%e || Y/Y 3.8% v 3. 7%e

·Y/Y is the highest since records began in January of 1997

·IT June Preliminary CPI Harmonized: M/M 0.5% v 0.3%e || Y/Y 4. 0% v 3.8%e

·Y/Y is the highest since records began in January of 2002

·*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

·In equity news overnight an analyst note overnight Credit Suisse said that it sees European earnings declining by 20% over the next two years. Carillion [CLLN.UK] said in a trading update overnight that their outlook remains positive, adding that overall trading is in line with forecasts. Michelin [ML.FR] announced a 9% increase to its aircraft tire prices France Telecom [FTE.FR] formally withdrew its proposal to combine with Teliasonera [TLSN.SW] as the companies were unable to reach an accord on financial terms. Taylor Wimpey [TW.UK] noted overnight that it is in talks with shareholders and other institutions on additional financing, adding that it sees £550M in writedowns. Cable & Wireless [CW.UK] confirmed that it is holding talks with on a possible 180p/share offer for Thus Group [THUS.UK]. Trinity Mirror [TNI.UK] guided FY08 operating profit 10% below expectations, canceling £67M worth of buybacks. The company said that it will review the carrying level of intangible assets adding that advertising market conditions have deteriorated.

·In the newspapers, according to the Telegraph Anglo American [AAL.UK] and Xstrata [XTA.UK] are examining iron ore assets that belong to BHP [BHP.AU] and Rio Tinto [RIO.UK]. The Sunday Express wrote that Sainsbury [SBRY.UK] may seek to sell its final salary pension scheme which is worth more than £2B. According to Sonntag Swiss Re [RUKN.SZ] may report writedowns of CHF350M on credit default swaps. Previous estimates were around CHF200M.

·In energy news overnight a Nigerian Minister said that the strike at Chevron's (CVX) Nigerian unit has not yet affected production. British Petroleum's [BP.UK] CEO said overnight that oil supply is not responding adequately to rising demand, adding that oil price is not driven by speculation. The CEO said that the world is not running out of oil, adding that oil taxes are getting "dangerously high" and that government should lower trade barriers and taxes.

·In currencies the JPY was firmer across the board after Moody's raised
Japan's JGB rating to Aa3 from A1. The USD/JPY was lower by over 110 pips as it tested the 105 handle, while the EUR/JPY cross was off 160+ pips at 166.10 and the GBP/JPY was down 230+ pips at 209.60. The USD maintained a soft tone into the month, quarter and H1 end. The EUR/USD breeched the 1.5800 option barrier but the 1.5850 level remains resistance. The USD/CHF was lower by 30 pips at 1.0150. The GBP/USD approached the 2.0 level before retracing after record lows in its mortgage approval data.

·On the speaker front
France's Jouyet said overnight that an ECB rate hike cannot be ruled out. Jouyet noted that it is normal for ECB to raise tone in order for US Fed to adopt more responsible tone, adding that he hopes that the ECB's tactic is the right tactic leads to a balance between US and European monetary policies. Jouyet added that he sees growth risks if ECB's tactic leads to greater divergence between European and US monetary policies. States that an ECB rate hike will not solve anything. The SNB's Roth said overnight in an interview with L'Agefi that the financial situation has partially stabilized, adding that financial markets remain negatively orientated. Roth noted that no one is talking about UBS [UBSN.SZ] going bankrupt. US Treasury Secretary Paulson said in Moscow overnight that US long-term economic prospects are solid and will be reflected in the US dollars value. Paulson reiterated that the strong dollar is a "good thing" and is in "US interests," noting that US economy is going though a tough period. An ECB Source reportedly said overnight that an ECB interest rate hike would signal resolve, and is not a risk to the economy, adding that heightened uncertainty means options are open beyond July. The source noted that risks for inflationary expectations are a key to policy course, adding that oil prices and financial market turmoil make forecasts less reliable.

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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