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Tuesday July 1, 2008 - 10:17:20 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: European Manufacturing PMI Readings Edge Lower


·GE May Retail Sales: M/M 1.3% v 0.8%e || Prior revised from -1.7% to -0.6% |||| Y/Y 0.7% v -1.1%e || Prior revised from -1.0% to -0.2%

·GE May ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.4% v 7.4%e

·UK June Nationwide House Prices: M/M -0.9% v -1.0%e || Y/Y -6.3% v -6.4%e

·SW June Swedbank PMI: 50.6 v 50.4e

·SP June Manufacturing PMI: 40.6 v 43.8 prior

·IT June Manufacturing PMI: 46.9 v 47.5e

·FR June Final Manufacturing PMI: 46.9 v 47.5e

·EU June Final Manufacturing PMI: 49. 2 v 49.1e

·GE June Final Manufacturing PMI: 52.6 v 52.3e

·GE June Unemployment Rate: 7.8% v 7.9%e

·GE June Unemployment Change: - 38K v -14Ke

·UK June Manufacturing PMI: 45.8 v 49.8e

·EU May Unemployment Rate: 7.2% v 7.1%e || Prior revised from 7.1% to 7. 2%


·In sector rating UBS raised the US Credit Card stocks to a neutral rating from a sell rating. Carpetright [CPR.UK] reported FY07 net income of £42.8M, down from the £46.3M a year ago, and revenue of £521.5M, up from the £476M a year ago. HMV Group [HMV.UK] reported FY07 revenue slightly ahead of expectations at £1.87B. The CEO said that he anticipates a stronger year for gaming.

·In the newspapers overnight, citing analysts the Wall Street Journal reported that UBS is expected to issue a Q2 profit warning. The analysts cite the deterioration of the mortgage-backed securities markets. The Telegraph wrote overnight that Barratt Developments [BDEV.UK] is near a rescue financing agreement. The agreement will relax some of the company's banking covenants.

·In energy news overnight according to technical analysts at UBS front-month NYMEX oil futures may trade to $145- $150/bbl in the long term. According to a US Senior Defense Official there is an "increasing" chance that
Israel would attack Iran. The official added that an attack on Iran could be caused by Iran producing close to the amounts of uranium needed to produce a nuclear weapon or if Iran acquires an advanced air defense system from Russia. The Saudi King said in a newspaper interview that oil prices will not ease even if production is raised. The King added that speculators and taxes are behind high oil prices, not OPEC. OPEC's President said overnight that he has big uncertainties on future demand, adding that he concerned about insecurity of oil demand. The Iranian Oil Minister reiterated overnight that markets are oversupplied, noting that there is little that OPEC can do to relieve prices. Total's [FP.FR] CEO said overnight that he sees global oil output reaching a plateau of 95M bpd by 2020.

·In fixed income the Wall Street Journal wrote overnight that banks are increasing their reliance on the credit-default swap market as a pricing benchmark for loans made to large corporate customers. The swap market is being used to determine the interest rates that these corporate clients pay.

·In currencies the USD was mixed in steady trading on Tuesday against the major pairs. The EUR/USD is around 1.5755, lower by 10 pips from opening levels seen in
Asia. The GBP/USD probed two-month highs as it attempted to break above the 2.0 level before softer manufacturing data pushed the pair to 1,9965 area. Commodities continued to prevail as the prevalent theme as oil hovers in the mid-$141 per barrel range. Geo-political factor continue to simmer as there is an "increasing" chance that Israel would attack Iran according to a US senior defense official. The financial sector remains fragile as rumors continue to circulate of potential profit warnings from major commercial banks. JPY and CHF carry related pairs are softer on growing risk-aversion.

·On the speaker front German Finance Minister Steinbrueck said overnight that the ECB should consider the impact of its decisions on growth, noting that higher interest rates lower inflation, but have other economic effects. Steinbrueck added that 2008 GDP growth will be at least as good as expected as start of the year.
Spain's Solbes sees Spain economy deteriorating until the end of the year, noting that high oil prices are impacting Spaniards wealth. Notes that Spain's is growth likely to have slowed in Q2, but see no recession but the economy to bottom at the end of the year. The German DIW Institute raised its 2008 GDP growth forecast to 2.7% from 2.0% and cut its 2009 GDP forecast to 1.2% from 1.6%. The Institute also said that an ECB hike would make sense given inflation, and poses little risk to economic growth. The DIW institute also speculated that the ECB may raise rates up to 4.50% in 2008. An EU Trade Union said overnight that the ECB's fear of wage increases are unfounded, adding that an ECB hike risks a sharper slowdown.


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