Sunday November 14, 2004 - 09:03:02 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar November 15th 2004 Price: ... 1.2976
Resistance: 1.2987 ... 1.3003 ... 1.3030 ... 1.3065
Support....: 1.2943 ... 1.2930 ... 1.2900 ... 1.2875
Mixed - but cautiously we feel there is a risk of pullback to 1.2920-30 before higher
Much as expected we saw the rally to the 1.2980-1.3003 range on Friday. While there is risk of direct gains above 1.3003 we tend to feel there is a good chance of a pullback first. However, this should remain above 1.2920-30 while a bullish stance is valid. From there or a direct break of 1.3003 look for gains to extend higher to 1.3100 at least which could cause a small pullback but we consider the risk is more for a move to the 1.3168-1.3187 area where we expect a larger pullback.
We have seen the expected move higher to the 1.2980-1.3003 range and although the larger bearish stance is beginning to look strained, until there is break of 1.3003 we must still consider the chance of a further decline. This would require the 1.2980-1.3003 resistance to hold and then break below the 1.2920-30 support. This event, if seen would allow losses down to 1.2875 - break there would likely cause a larger move lower through 1.2846 and 1.2820 and down to 1.2762.
Elliott Wave Comments:
November 8th 2004
We are encouraged by the rally into our 1.2962-1.2984 target range. The lower end of this represents a Wave -c- of 161.8% the length of Wave -a- while the 1.2984 target is derived from the Wave [c] within Wave (v) being 161.8% of Wave [a]. Within Wave [c] there is a suggestion of a risk of extension to 1.3000-10 and thus should be allowed for. Confirmation of a peak would be a decline first below 1.2760 and then the Wave (iv) low at 1.2629. Should price unexpectedly rally above 1.3010 then the next major target would be a Wave (v) projection of 61.8% at 1.3100 along with a weekly/daily Expanded Flat Correction from 1.2927 of 14.6%.
November 15th 2004
Well, trading last week did see the test of 1.3000-10 but we have not seen a break below the critical 1.2820-46 area to confirm a lower low. We have placed an alternative wave count in the 8-hour chart today which gives a guideline should the 1.3003 level be broken. This would imply that Wave (iii) is extending to the 2.618 projection of 1.3187 with Wave (c) finding qave equality with Wave (a) at 1.3168. Thus, on a break of 1.3003 look for this final rally before a Wave (iv) correction. Any earlier break below 1.2820-46 would imply that 1.3003 actually completed Wave (v) and the end of the flat correction from 1.2927 earlier this year.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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