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Wednesday July 2, 2008 - 10:39:17 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Euro-Zone PPI Hits All Time Y/Y High


·NO June PMI: 49.3 v 52.3e

·SP June Net Change in Unemployment: 36.8K v 15.1K prior

·IT Q1 Deficit to GDP ratio: 4.7% v 1.3% prior || Prior revised from 1.3% to 1.9%

·UK June Construction PMI: 38.8 v 43. 1e

·UK Q1 BOE Housing Equity Withdrawal: £5.0B v £5.3Be || Prior revised from £7.3B to £7.4B

·EU May PPI: M/M 1.2% v 0.9%e || Prior revised from 0.8% to 0.9% |||| Y/Y 7.1% v 6.7%e || Prior revised from 6.1% to 6.2%


·Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] said overnight that they expect a profitable Q2, guiding a tier 1 ratio of around 9%. The bank added that it sees no further capital requirement. Taylor Wimpey [TW.UK] reported year-to- date sales -13% y/y overnight, noting that weekly sales rates are significantly lower. The company said that it expects housing to remain weak at least through 2008, and said that it will cut 900 jobs. The homebuilder also noted that it failed to raise funds. The gloomy report weighed heavily upon homebuilding shares in the

·In the newspapers Les Echos reported overnight that
France's Iliad [ILD.FR] and Bollore Telecom are seeking to have Google (GOOG) invest in their WiMax networks. The Wall Street Journal reported overnight that Microsoft (MSFT) has talked with other media companies in recent days about forming a group to pursue a break-up of Yahoo (YHOO). UBS' [UBSN.SZ] Chairman Kurer said in an interview with Finanz & Wirtschaft that the company does not need to raise new capital.

·In energy news overnight the Venezuelan Oil Minister said that global prices of oil have reached "equilibrium". The Times reported overnight that the
UK PM may talk with Russia's President in order to settle the TNK-BP [BP.UK] [GAZP.RU] dispute. According to an unconfirmed report OPEC's Secretary General reiterated that there is no shortage of oil supply.

·In currencies the USD was mixed in trading on Wednesday, while the GBP was broadly weaker following the reports from
UK homebuilder Taylor Wimpey. The GBP/USD continued to sustain momentum to hold above its 200 day moving average at 1.9977. The GBP/USD was lower by 85 pips at 1.9885, while the EUR/GBP was at 0.7956, up 40 pips from its opening levels seen in Asia. The EUR/USD continued to probe the former option barrier resistance level of 1.5850, but was unable to find the momentum to break the level. Comments from EU's Almunia that noting the that Euro is "overvalued" helped to stabilize the USD ahead of Thursday's ECB interest rate decision.

·In new supply overnight
Germany sold €4.615B in July 2018 bunds with an average yield of 4.66% and a bid-to-cover of 1.1x. The cover on the previous auction was 1.2x. In the UK the DMO sold £2.25B in 4.50% December 2042 gilts with an average yield of 4.697% and a bid-to-cover of 1.55x. The auction had a yield tail of 0. 7bps. Regarding the emerging markets the Financial Times reported that Venezuelan regulations designed to reduce forex speculation could trigger the collapse of several banks.

·On the speaker front the Fed's Lockhart said overnight that the Fed's policy is to react decisively against inflation. Lockhart reiterated that Dollar depreciation and strong overseas growth have helped
US exports, adding that he sees Q2 growth "substantially" above Q1's growth level of 1.0%, but he does not expect much of a pickup during 2H08. Furthermore Lockhart noted that headline inflation is high and rising, and CPI is above personal comfort level, but added that there is little indication inflation has factored into wages. The EU's Almunia said in an interview with La Vanguardia overnight that stagflation is an obvious risk, noting tht Europe should devote all its efforts to fighting inflation. Almunia noted that a large portion of subprime related losses have yet to show up, adding that he expects market confidence to return by mid-August 2009. Almunia reiterated that the Euro is overvalued, but noted that the ECB needs to follow its mandate on price stability. The Italian Finance Ministry forecasted 2008 GDP of 0.0%-0.5% overnight. The German VDMA group said overnight that May plant and machinery orders are down 12% y/y. The ECB's Trichet said overnight that inflation may "explode" if the ECB remains hesitant, adding that only decisive action can deal with CPI. The German HDE Retail Association cut it 2008 nominal sales growth forecast to 1.5% from 2.0%

·*** NOTES ***

·We're unlikely to see a surprise from the ECB tomorrow, but then again if we were all anticipating one it wouldn't be much of a surprise. With that in mind the Swedish, and Icelandic interest rate decisions have the potential to be slightly more interesting than the ECB decision as consensus estimates vary. Back to the ECB, Trichet's is likely to maintain that the ECB plans to maintain its price stability mandate at the post-announcement press conference. Language will remain key though as market participants will be looking for any indication on what the ECB may do over the coming months.


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