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Monday July 7, 2008 - 21:24:34 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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FX Blog - Morning Report

Morning Report  Tuesday 8 July 2008

News and views
The US dollar
consolidated its Asian rally in London and into the NY morning, before tumbling in on worries over government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. An investment bank report claimed these GSEs might have to raise $75bn in fresh capital. NZD/USD had extended its decline to as low as 0.7503 but then began its recovery, with the agency worries helping NZD/USD rebound to above 0.7540.

AUD/USD followed a similar pattern, slipping to a low of 0.9515 in the NY morning, with USD sentiment helped by a sharp drop in oil prices ($143 to intraday lows under $140) before AUD/USD recovered to around 0.9560.

EUR/USD gyrated around 1.5620-60 until the concern over the GSEs sent equities sliding. The euro bounced from 1.5655 to over 1.5740.

Tumbling US stocks and rallying Treasuries usually help the Japanese yen and overnight trade was no exception. USD/JPY had risen as far as 107.75 (about one yen vs Friday’s close) but then dropped back to 106.80 before buyers nibbled once more.

There was no US data overnight, but San Francisco Fed President Yellen spoke on the economy. She noted that the risks to inflation are “not symmetric” but have definitely increased, and that the Fed won’t allow a wage-price spiral to develop. Overall, slightly more hawkish comments from someone who is considered a bellwether for the FOMC’s thinking.

German industrial production fell 2.4% in May, much weaker than expected and even worse than last week’s soft factory orders had suggested. Manufacturing production was down 2.6%, while construction production rose 1.1%, a partial rebound from the 3.5% decline in April. We have said for some time that Q2 would be weaker than Q1 (which was admittedly a scorcher), but there is now a growing risk of an outright contraction in GDP

UK industrial production was also much weaker than expected, down 0.8% in May against a median forecast of a 0.1% drop. The annual pace fell to -1.6%, the weakest since December 2005. UK data has been overwhelmingly poor in recent weeks, and the risk of a technical recession this year is growing.

Canadian data bucked the trend with a 1.1% rise in building permit values in May, against expectations for a reversal of April’s 17% surge. The increase was due to a 12.8% rise in non-residential permits, while residential permits were down 6.6%. The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey was also surprisingly positive, with hiring intentions solid, expected sales growth actually up slightly, and capacity utilisation little changed. Inflation expectations increased sharply, reflecting higher energy and commodity prices.

Outlook
Today’s local data highlight is the Q2 NZIER business confidence survey. We remain wary of the potential for NZD/USD to push higher on the back of renewed USD weakness and/or better than expected NZ data. However, any significant bounces may just present a good opportunity to sell into ahead of the RBNZ July OCR review. We still don’t feel the FX market is pricing in enough risk of a rate cut.

Upcoming Events
Date Country Release Last Forecast

8 Jul NZ Q2 NZIER Business Confidence –64% –
Aus Jun NAB Business Confidence –4 –
US May Pending Home Sales 6.3% –4.0%
May Wholesale Inventories 1.3% 0.5%
May Consumer Credit $bn 8.9 7.5
Fedspeak: Bernanke, Lacker
Jpn Jun Bank Lending %yr 1.5% –
Jun Economy Watchers Survey 32.1 –

UK May House Prices %yr 4.9% 3.3%
9 Jul Aus Jul Westpac-MI Consumer Sent 84.7 –
May Housing Finance –2.5% –4.0%

Latest Research Papers/Publications
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (7 July)
• More for less (2 July)
• NZ Q2 Employment Confidence Index (1 July)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (30 June)
• NZ Q1 GDP Review (27 June)
• NZ Q1 Current Account Review (26 June)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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