Tuesday November 16, 2004 - 01:04:00 GMT
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Forex: Daily Commentary for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 16th November 2004 Price: ... 1.2932
Resistance: 1.2953 ... 1.2970 ... 1.2995 ... 1.3030
Support....: 1.2925 ... 1.2906 ... 1.2883 ... 1.2850
While 1.2883-1.2906 holds we cautiously remain bullish for 1.3100 & 1.3188
As expected we have seen a pullback from the 1.2997 area though this has been marginally lower than expected. While the 1.2916 level may well prove to be the low we should also allow for a dip to 1.2883 but overall we feel that while this area holds the greater risk is higher. A break above this morning's high at 1.2953 will assist while abofve 1.2970 & 1.2995 will confirm further losses to 1.3100 at least while a target for this rally is at 1.3188.
Losses seen as expected and a marginal break of the 1.2920 support. We feel that the 1.2916 level should hold but we should also be aware of the risk of a dip to 1.2883. Thus only below 1.2880 would threaten the 1.2846 corrective low while a breach of 1.2820 would be enough to trigger further losses down to the 1.2760-80 area. Further support is found at 1.2705.
Elliott Wave Comments:
November 8th 2004
We are encouraged by the rally into our 1.2962-1.2984 target range. The lower end of this represents a Wave -c- of 161.8% the length of Wave -a- while the 1.2984 target is derived from the Wave [c] within Wave (v) being 161.8% of Wave [a]. Within Wave [c] there is a suggestion of a risk of extension to 1.3000-10 and thus should be allowed for. Confirmation of a peak would be a decline first below 1.2760 and then the Wave (iv) low at 1.2629. Should price unexpectedly rally above 1.3010 then the next major target would be a Wave (v) projection of 61.8% at 1.3100 along with a weekly/daily Expanded Flat Correction from 1.2927 of 14.6%.
November 15th 2004
Well, trading last week did see the test of 1.3000-10 but we have not seen a break below the critical 1.2820-46 area to confirm a lower low. We have placed an alternative wave count in the 8-hour chart today which gives a guideline should the 1.3003 level be broken. This would imply that Wave (iii) is extending to the 2.618 projection of 1.3187 with Wave (c) finding qave equality with Wave (a) at 1.3168. Thus, on a break of 1.3003 look for this final rally before a Wave (iv) correction. Any earlier break below 1.2820-46 would imply that 1.3003 actually completed Wave (v) and the end of the flat correction from 1.2927 earlier this year.
November 16th 2004
We suspect that the structure since the original 1.2985 high has taken the form of an irregular triangle which may well have found a low at 1.2916 yesterday. A 76.4% projection of Wave e would imply a low of 1.2883 and this must hold to retain a bullish structure. Under this we look for gains in Wave -v- to 1.3167-88 and would imply that Wave (iii) extended higher to this area.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc
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