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Thursday July 10, 2008 - 22:35:09 GMT
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FX Research - Morning Report

Morning Report  Friday 11 July 2008

News and views
The US dollar came under broad pressure in overnight trade, with worries over the US financial sector to the forefront once again. Former Fed official Poole’s description of the govt-sponsored mortgage agencies as technically insolvent reverberated, along with fresh (unfounded) rumours about one of the investment banks. The USD jitters helped the New Zealand dollar recover from 0.7550 in the London morning to pop above 0.7600 before steadying back to 0.7580 by late New York.

AUD/USD was a little quieter, drifting up from 0.9585 to 0.9620, extending its gains made on Australia’s strong June employment report. A resumption of oil price gains (jumping more than $3/bbl in the NY afternoon on reports of further Iranian missile tests) also lent support to the euro, with EUR/ USD gaining about 70 pips overall to 1.5780.

USD/JPY fell about 40 pips on the Iran/oil news to around 106.80 but overall the yen was little changed, as US equities bounced late and headed for a positive close.

US initial jobless claims fell 58k to 346k last week but the figures cannot be trusted because we have entered the period when US automakers temporarily shut down their plants for new model retooling. Because the particular weeks in July-August when factories are shut down vary from year to year, the seasonal adjustment factors cannot cope and the data swing wildly. The July 4 holiday will have been another potential distortion. In contrast, in the prior week, continuing claims soared to a new cyclical high, above 3.2mn for the first time since the end of 2003. That points to ongoing deterioration in the labour market heading into July.

Fed chair Ben Bernanke (and Treasury Secretary Paulson) testified in the House today on financial market regulation. Bernanke steered clear of current economic and monetary policy issues in his prepared text and the Q&A no doubt saving himself for next week’s semi-annual report on monetary policy and his associated testimony.

French and Italian industrial production down 2.6%/1.4% in May. German industrial production has already been reported down 2.4% in May; with Italian and French IP also slumping in May, next week’s Euroland IP report should also be weak (due 14/7). With survey evidence for June also very weak, the case against a further rate rise from the ECB is building.

The Bank of England left rates on hold at 5.0% following this week’s policy meeting. As usual, no move so there was no accompanying statement. The minutes to the meeting will be published in two weeks and it will be interesting to see whether anyone joined David Blanchflower in voting for a cut, given the recent flood of very weak activity data. Still, with inflation set to rise above 4% yr in coming months, one or more of the hawks may have voted for an ECB style “shot across the bow” rate rise as well. We’ll know on 23/7. On the data front, house prices keep falling away in the UK according to HBoS (and almost every one else!).

Outlook
We have been brazenly bearish on the NZD for some time now and have remained short via the TWI since April 24. But for the week ahead, we have to temper our negativity. If we are correct on our CPI forecast, it will make the July OCR outcome that much more difficult to price. With the OIS market allocating a 64% chance of a 25bps cut at the July meeting, we have to see some short term upside risks for the NZD and potentially the TWI.

Upcoming Events
Date Country Release Last Forecast

11 Jul US May Trade Balance $bn –60.9 –62.5
Jun Import Prices 2.3% 2.0%
Jul UoM Consumer Sent (Prelim) 56.4 55.0
Jun Federal Budget $bn 27.5 30.0
Jpn Jun Consumer Confidence 34.1 33.0
Can Jun Employment chg 8.4 flat
May Trade Balance C$bn 5.1 5.2
May New House Prices flat 0.1%
14 Jul NZ May Retail Sales 1.0% –0.5%
Eur May Industrial Production 0.9% –

Latest Research Papers/Publications
• NZ Q2 CPI Preview (10 July)
• NZ Interest Rate Focus (9 July)
• NZ Q2 QSBO Review (8 July)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (7 July)
• More for less (2 July)
• NZ Q2 Employment Confidence Index (1 July)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (30 June)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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