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Tuesday November 16, 2004 - 19:10:23 GMT
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DOLLAR FAILS TO GAIN GROUND ON POSITIVE DATA

The Dollar failed to gain any significant ground on the back of some very positive data out of the Treasury department this morning. U.S Producer Price Index exploded 1.7 percent in October and this was almost three times what the market had priced in. At 9am the Treasury data was released and it showed net foreign purchases all securities rose to 63.4 billion in September from August at 59.9. The Euro lost ground to the Dollar initially but again Euro declines were met with buyers on dips and this put an end to any advances the Dollar should have mustered up. Dollar/Jpy bounced to session highs of 105.66/71 before succumbing to profit taking and washed down to 10525/30 level and then leveled off. The market continues to talk about a 1.3010 barrier option that is being protected and this has traders pulling out their hair trying to make a run at this level to no avail. The talk of intervention continues to make the circuit, with speculation as to when and where the ECB will show their hand and put and end to the significant rise of the Euro against the Greenback. Even some talk from Chicago Fed’s Moskow about the Fed having “certainly more ground to cover” as far as rates are concerned had little boost to the Dollar.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING Dollar/Jpy remains above the 30 and 120hr moving averages but below the 200hr moving average at 105.88 on a 60 minute chart. There is short term support at 105.10/20 and resistance at 105.75/85. Trend line support is seen below these levels at 104.75/85 The Relative Strength Index is positive at 54.78.

GAIN AN EDGE We look to buy DollarJpy on a dip to 105.10 with a stop below 104.70 and a take profit of 105.90

 

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