Wednesday November 17, 2004 - 00:33:47 GMT
Share This Story
FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 17th November 2004 Price: ... 1.2958
Resistance: 1.2982 ... 1.3003 ... 1.3030 ... 1.3065
Support....: 1.2935 ... 1.2914 ... 1.2873 ... 1.2848
While 1.2935-45 holds we cautiously remain bullish for 1.3100 & 1.3188
The 1.2995 resistance has held and while yesterday's rally to this level is quite complicated we tend to feel that initial trading today should be held within a 1.2935-1.2980 range ahead of a break higher. It would appear that the move higher should be quite aggressive with potential stalling points at 1.3030 & 1.3065 ahead of the 1.3100 area. However our target for the rally is at 1.3168-88 where we expect a pullback to occur.
The 1.2916 level did supply the low yesterday and the most we could see on the downside today is 1.2935 - though consider the 1.2948 low seen this morning a probable low for the day. Thus, only below 1.2935 would threaten the downside again with a subsequent break of the 1.2914-16 area causing stronger losses down to 1.2873 and probably 1.2848. Further support is found at 1.2820.
Elliott Wave Comments:
November 8th 2004
We are encouraged by the rally into our 1.2962-1.2984 target range. The lower end of this represents a Wave -c- of 161.8% the length of Wave -a- while the 1.2984 target is derived from the Wave [c] within Wave (v) being 161.8% of Wave [a]. Within Wave [c] there is a suggestion of a risk of extension to 1.3000-10 and thus should be allowed for. Confirmation of a peak would be a decline first below 1.2760 and then the Wave (iv) low at 1.2629. Should price unexpectedly rally above 1.3010 then the next major target would be a Wave (v) projection of 61.8% at 1.3100 along with a weekly/daily Expanded Flat Correction from 1.2927 of 14.6%.
November 15th 2004
Well, trading last week did see the test of 1.3000-10 but we have not seen a break below the critical 1.2820-46 area to confirm a lower low. We have placed an alternative wave count in the 8-hour chart today which gives a guideline should the 1.3003 level be broken. This would imply that Wave (iii) is extending to the 2.618 projection of 1.3187 with Wave (c) finding qave equality with Wave (a) at 1.3168. Thus, on a break of 1.3003 look for this final rally before a Wave (iv) correction. Any earlier break below 1.2820-46 would imply that 1.3003 actually completed Wave (v) and the end of the flat correction from 1.2927 earlier this year.
November 16th 2004
We suspect that the structure since the original 1.2985 high has taken the form of an irregular triangle which may well have found a low at 1.2916 yesterday. A 76.4% projection of Wave e would imply a low of 1.2883 and this must hold to retain a bullish structure. Under this we look for gains in Wave -v- to 1.3167-88 and would imply that Wave (iii) extended higher to this area.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy Pro Charts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."