User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday July 16, 2008 - 22:42:32 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Blog - US Dollar Fights its Way Back

US Dollar Fights its Way Back

• EUR/USD Risk Reversals Signals Further Losses
• British Pound: UK Unemployment Rises by the Most in 16 Years

US Dollar Fights its Way Back

After hitting a record low against the Euro on Tuesday, the greenback is fighting its way back. The fundamental factors that are driving the dollar higher today include falling oil prices, a rebounding stock market, intervention risk and hawkish FOMC minutes.  Although each of these factors has the power to turn the dollar around individually, the primary story is oil.  Since Tuesday, oil prices have fallen more than $10 a barrel, leaving many consumers and investors hoping that this is a top. Lower oil prices is a big relief for US consumers and businesses, which is why the Dow rose more than 270 points today.  Meanwhile the dollar is also benefitting from speculation that the Federal Reserve could intervene to prop up the US dollar.  In his testimony this morning, Bernanke said that forex intervention should be done rarely and that USD intervention may be justified in disorderly times. Since most of us would argue that current conditions can be described as “disorderly,” Bernanke may be warning about possible plans for intervention, but we think that is unlikely.  According to the minutes from the June FOMC meeting, Fed officials were prepared to raise interest rates “very soon.”  They felt that growth risks diminished but inflation was on the rise.  However don’t read too much into these minutes given that a lot has changed since June; Growth risks have increased significantly and inflationary pressures or at least inflation expectations are beginning to ease.  The same can be said of the Treasury International Capital flow numbers which indicated that even though foreign purchases of US securities fell last month, there is no sign that China or Japan has reduced their holdings of US dollars.  In fact, purchases of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s debt actually increased in May.  We suspect that the data for June and July will look very different.  Finally, other pieces of US data were mixed.  Consumer prices raced to the highest level since 1991 on an annualized basis, industrial production was strong but the NAHB housing market index fell to a record low.  Given current market conditions, traders should forget about a rate hike from the Fed this year.  Inflation is a problem, but the stability of the financial markets; growth and global investor confidence are even bigger problems.  If oil prices fall back towards $120 a barrel, the Fed will remain on hold for the remainder of the year.

EUR/USD Risk Reversals Signals Further Losses

Broad dollar strength has driven the EUR/USD lower. Eurozone Consumer price figures were right in line with expectations, providing no real support for the currency.  Instead, a multitude of factors have contributed to the dollar’s recovery (outlined in the US dollar section above), but the bottom line is that US dollar weakness was overdone.  Risk reversals in the EUR/USD hit an extreme level.  The 25 delta 3 month risk reversals are at the highest level since June 2007. Whenever risk reversals hits critical levels, it indicates that anyone who wants to be long Euros are already long and as a result, sentiment has hit an extreme. The last time EUR/USD risk reversals were near these levels was in June and September 2007. Both times, we saw a relief rally in the US dollar that lasted for approximately 250 to 300 pips. Risk reversals are once again telling us that the US dollar is oversold and due for a further recovery. However as we saw in previous months, a rebound in the EUR/USD is not the same as a long term bottom (risk reversal chart).  Meanwhile Swiss retail sales doubled expectations as spending on electronics and leisure products increased.  The Swiss National Bank is comfortably on hold as they expect inflation to ease back to their 2 percent target next year. 

Visit the Euro Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.

British Pound: UK Unemployment Rises by the Most in 16 Years

The latest labor market report from the United Kingdom confirms that the UK economy is in trouble.  Jobless claims rose by 15.5k, the largest increase in 16 years with average earnings growth including and excluding bonuses falling.  The layoffs in the financial sector and the problems in the housing market have taking a big toll on the UK economy.  We fully expect employment to deteriorate further in the coming months which will prevent the Bank of England from raising interest rates despite strong inflationary pressures.  The weaker outlook for the UK economy has not hurt the British pound much, as the currency is holding up well against the US dollar and Euro.  Even though the pound fell victim to dollar strength, it is still trading above Tuesday’s low. 

Visit the British Pound Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the British Pound.

Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars Retrace

The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars retraced their recent gains on the heels of broad dollar strength.  The biggest decliner was the Australian dollar, which had raced to a 25 year high as recently as yesterday.  Squashing any speculation for a rate hike were comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens who said that the current level of interest rates will help drive consumer prices lower even though it will probably bring down growth as well.  The Westpac Leading indicators index was flat in May, confirming the gradual slowdown in the Australian economy.  There was no economic data from New Zealand but Canada reported a sharp rise in manufacturing shipments, which coincides with the recent jump in the IVEY PMI index.

Tell us what you think on the Canadian dollar Forum. 

USD/JPY Sticking its Neck Back Above 105

The 270 point rally in the Dow has helped to drive many of the Japanese Yen crosses higher.  The best performer was USD/JPY which is back above 105.  Given the strength of today’s rally in the US equities, we will probably see continuation.  We expect the Dow to rebound back up 11,400, which would be bullish for USD/JPY.  The tertiary index was weaker than expected, which has weighed on the Yen.

Visit the Japanese Yen Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Yen.




By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

Contact Kathy Lien about this article at [email protected]


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105