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Wednesday November 17, 2004 - 13:09:23 GMT

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GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary for Wednesday, November 17, 2004

GFT Forex Commentary by Cornelius Luca, currencies analyst, Global Forex Trading (source:

While itís been struggling to recover so far this week, the dollar remains in a downtrend. It will continue to consolidate at around these levels on Wednesday, so expect more choppy trading. Signs that surging food and energy prices finally had a discernable impact on inflation had only a brief impact on the market. Be careful of a slide into the end of the week; the market remains extremely short dollars ahead of the Thanksgiving week, which means that the downside risk significantly exceeds the upside risk.


Euro/dollar has been trading one day up and one day down since Friday, and this illustrates the difficulty of dealing at the extremes of the trend. The pair gained on Tuesday, but failed to match its latest record high of 1.3004. The major trend is up, but it doesnít mean that Wednesday must be an up day as well. There is a trendline coming in 1.2940, so the risk is actually on the downside.

A break below the support at 1.2940 on a closing basis will pretty much mean that the uptrend is over. Below 1.2860, euro/dollar would accelerate its decline on long liquidation and take a shot at the 1.2800 level.

Immediate resistance now comes a tad higher at 1.2990. Once again, only a break above 1.3005 would reinvigorate the rally and then the pair would test the resistance at 1.3040 and 1.3060. Distant resistance remains at around 1.3140.

Oscillators are rising.

MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish


Dollar/yen trotted in place on Tuesday but remains under selling pressure near a seven-month low of 105.14. The key level to watch remains the 50-point pivot at 105.60, which targets 105.10 and 106.10.

Below 105.10, there is another 50-point pivot at 104.50, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.

Once again, if the pair can make a more sustained recovery above 105.60, then expect a re-test of the Fibonacci retracement level at 105.94. Further up there still is the 50-point pivot at 106.75, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.

Oscillators are declining.

MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish


Just like euro/dollar, sterling/dollar has been trading one day up and one day down since Friday, and Tuesday was one of the up days. The pair didnít come even close to touching its 3 1/2-month high of 1.8615, which it reached last Monday, but still managed to close near the halfway mark of the uptrend.

Immediate resistance now comes between 1.8585 and 1.8615. Above the area, resistance remains at 1.8675, 1.8705 and then at 1.8725.

If the pair can resume its decline, it will face good support at 1.8470 and then at around 1.8425 from the rising 20-day moving average. A close below this rising line would greatly increase the odds of an aggressive bearish reversal. Sterling/dollar would then break below 1.8365 and test 1.8300.

Oscillators are mixed.

MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss fell on Tuesday but managed to trim these losses by the closing time. The pair remained within Fridayís range for the second consecutive day, so only a break out would encourage setting new positions. Dollar/Swiss remains close to the eight-year low of 1.1690 reached on Friday.

It should recover further and take another stab at the resistance 1.1820. A break above this level would signal a recovery to 1.1860 and alleviate its oversold status. Next barrier remains at 1.1950.

Key, pivotal low remains at 1.1690. Next, support remains at 1.1635. Distant support then follows at 1.1520 from the target of a long-term bear flag, but the pair should not slide that far.

Oscillators are mixed.

LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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