Thursday November 18, 2004 - 01:20:13 GMT
Share This Story
FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 18th November 2004 Price: ... 104.10
Resistance: 104.20 ... 104.45 ... 104.65 ... 105.00
Support....: 103.78 ... 103.52 ... 103.30 ... 102.80
While 104.45-65 holds we are bearish to 103.52 at least and suspect to 102.75-80
We feel the decline has not reached a low as yet. We have seen recovery back to 104.10 this morning and we need to watch resistance at 104.20 which could hold. Break would allow further choppy gains to 104.45 at least and then we suspect to 104.65. However, we see that as the limit for the day. Thus only a break above 104.65 would allow gains to extend a little higher but there is still moderately strong pivot resistance at 105.00-20.
Losses broke below the 104.16 target and through to the next support at 103.82 with a small breach to 103.78. Looking at the short term wave structure this does not look complete and following a pullback we look for a new low to be made. Initially we look for a test of the 103.42-52 area to be followed by a further pullback but while this holds below 104.20-45 (max 104.65) we look for the eventual target at 102.75-80.
Elliott Wave Comments:
November 16th 2004
All looked to be progressing well by Thursday with a move to 107.28 that appeared to come in a double zig-zag. The decline on Friday down to 105.30 is therefore concerning as it would appear to suggest a larger move lower. However, being close we feel it prudent to wait for break of 105.22-27 before abandoning the Wave[iv] rally. If this does occur we should be seeing an attack of 104.60 at least and possibly even the 103.42 low which will be the next larger support in a flat correction. Watch the 104.60 area which is implied within an expanded flat correction and a bounce from there above 105.20-30 could generate a stronger move higher towards the 107.28 corrective peak and possibly up to the 107.65 Fibonacci retracement level.
November 16th 2004
Losses have been seen in line with our suspicions and we feel this still have some downside with the Wave (c) of Wave [iv] still under development. We have two targets, the first being at 103.52 being where Wave (c) is equal to Wave (a) and also at 102.75-80 where Wave (c) is equal to Wave (a) x 138.2%. Given that the move down to 103.78 appears still to be part of the Wave (iii) of Wave (c) we actually look for a low around 103.52 followed by Wave (iv) and a final decline to 102.75 in Wave (v) of Wave (c).
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy Pro Charts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."