User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday July 28, 2008 - 12:10:38 GMT
Trade the News Staff - www.global-view.com/forex-services/TTN/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Blog - European Market Update: German Consumer Confidence Slides; Market Gears up for Second Week of Big Earnings

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

·GE Aug GfK Consumer Confidence: 2.1 v 3.5e || Prior revised from 3.9 to 3.6

·SP May Mortgages-Capital Loaned Y/Y: -36.5% v -13.1% prior

·SP May Mortgages on Houses: -36. 2% v -9.4% prior

·SP May House Transactions: -34.3% v -7.1% prior

·*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

·In equity news overnight Ryanair [RYA.UK] reported a Q1 pretax loss of €90.5M, below the loss of €50.9M expected and revenue of €777M, below estimates of €865M. Ryanair's passenger traffic rose to 15M passengers from 12.6M in Q1 of last year. The company said that it is hedged at 80% for Q3 at $124/barrel, and noted that it is unhedeged for Q4. (Shares were down over 20% in early trading).
Informa [INF.UK] reported 1H net income of £46.5M, down from £68.7M a year ago, operating profit of £77. 7M, up from £74.8M a year ago, and revenue of £627.6M, up from £532.5M a year ago. The company said that trading remains in line with prior expectations. (Shares were down over 1% in early trading). Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argenta [BBVA.SP] reported Q2 net income of €1.16B, below estimate of €1.49Be. The company's 1H loan default ratio was 1.15%, up from 0.86% a year ago. (Shares were down around 1% in early trading). BAE Systems [BA. UK] offered to acquired Detica [DCA.UK] for 440p/share in cash, in a deal valued at £531M. The offer price represents an 18.2% premium to Friday's closing price. (Shares were up over 15% in early trading). TNT [TNT.NV] reported Q2 net income of €205M, below expectations of €224M. Operating income at €324M was shy of the €350M consensus, while revenue of €2.81B was roughly in line with expectations. The company said that they see their FY08 results at the lower end of the previously issued forecast, and will decide on buyback following refinancing bond redemption. (Shares were down over 5% in early trading). Reckitt Benckiser [RB.UK] reported Q2 net income of £240M, in line with consensus expectations, and pretax of £315M, just above the £311M consensus. Revenue of £1.65B was in line with expectations of £1.63B. The company's gross margin ws 58.3% up from 57.6% a year ago. Reckitt noted that they are on track to meet their FY08 targets. (Shares were up over 2.75% in early trading) Pearson [PSON.UK] reported H1 pretax of £55M in line with the £54.2Me consensus, and revenue of £1.97B, above estimates of £1.84B. The CEO said that he is confident that 2008 will be another record year. Pearson confirmed its FY08 guidance. (Shares were up nearly 3% in early trading). IBM (IBM) announced overnight that it will acquire ILOG [ILO.FR] for €10/share in cash in a deal valued at €215M. The offer represents a 37% premium to Friday's closing price. (Shares were suspended) HomeServe [HSV.UK] said in a trading update overnight that Q1 results are ahead of last year, and are in line with forecasts. (Shares were up nearly 3.5% in early trading).

·In the newspapers Sueddeutsche Zeiting wrote that Infineon [IFX.GE] is mulling the sale of all or part of its 77.47% stake in Qimonda (QI). WestLB's Chairman said in Focus that the bank is close to finding a merger partner. Potential merger partners include Landesbank
Berlin, LBBW, BayernLB, DekaBank, HSH Nordbank or Helaba. According to Sonntag the Verband der Automobilindustrie (VDA) said that German car makers may raise prices in the future due to higher steel prices. The Telegraph reported overnight that Taylor Nelson [TNS.UK] is seeking a merger partner in order to avoid a hostile bid by WPP Group [WPP.UK]. According to the Independent BP [BP.UK] may examine legal options against its Russian partners in TNK-BP. The Financial Mail wrote overnight that, due to market conditions, RBS [RBS.UK] may cancel the sale of its UK insurance unit, which is thought to be valued at around £7.0B The Telegraph wrote overnight that Barratt Development [BDEV.UK] is talking with UK banks, including HBOS [HBOS.UK], regarding potential real estate joint ventures. The Wall Street Journal commented on the SEC's probe regarding rumors related to Lehman (LEH) overnight. The article noted that the SEC is placing its attention on 4 rumors regarding Lehman. Subpoenas have been issued to dozens of hedge funds requesting transcripts of phone conversations, messages and payroll documents that mention or include the Fed's lending facility, Barclays PLC, SAC Capital and PIMCO.

·In energy news overnight Royal Dutch Shell [RDSA.UK] confirmed that there was an attack on its Nembe Creek Truck pipeline in Niger Delta (130K B
PD) facility.

·In new supply overnight
Italy sold €2.5B in zero-coupon April 2010 bonds with an average yield of 4.584% and a bid-to-cover of 1. 66x. The Times wrote overnight that, according to a report by Deloitte, the UK is nearing a recession, which could rival the one seen during the early 1990s. Deloitte has warned that UK house prices will fall by a third by the end of 2010. Deloitte's economic adviser, Roger Bootle, said the recent fall in the value of sterling ought eventually to help exporters and thus rebalance the economy away from consumer spending. But he added that 'The lower pound will not prevent the economy from slowing sharply as steep falls in house prices, a squeeze on real incomes and the credit crunch hit domestic demand.' According to the Secretary of State for Tourism, speaking in an interview with El Mundo, tourist spending in Spain may decline by the end of 2008 despite the rising number of visitors. The official noted that the hotel and leisure industry is not immune to an economic slowdown.

·In currencies the USD was mildly softer against the Euro, Swiss, and yen related pairs as oil moved higher on renewed supply concerns following an attack on a Nigerian pipeline. The EUR/USD was trading around the 1.5730 area after MEND militant rebels stated that they attacked two Royal Dutch Shell pipelines in the
Niger delta region. FX dealers ignored the multi-year low in the German GFK confidence survey. The USD was a touch firmer against the GBP as the pair maintained a foothold above the 1. 9820 key pivot point. The EUR/JPY pair within striking distance of fresh all-time highs, but dealers continued to note an option barrier at the 170- level.

·On the speaker front the president of the Minneapolis Fed, Gary Stern, said in an interview with the Financial Times overnight that the credit squeeze in the
US is likely to persist for many months and might even get worse. Stern noted that with rates at 2%, the Fed is well placed to cope with any negative surprises on growth. Stern added that the Fed is not as well positioned to deal with any negative surprises on inflation. Stern said that without any such surprises, real rates are at levels that, if sustained for too long would not be compatible with medium term price stability. Stern said that either inflation expectations need to decline, or the Fed will have to raise rates, or both, in order to achieve the required tightening in real rates.

·*** NOTES ***

·With little economic data on the cards, and no European officials stationed behind the podiums, the final week of July commenced at a slow and boring pace. Fear not my friends as the pace is set to pick up speed tomorrow; Tuesday will be ushered in by economic data, bond auctions, trumpets and all. Given the lack of overly significant events overnight, at least in my mind, I would like to take a moment to share a quick, broad glance of the Spanish economy. Spanish consumer confidence declined to the lowest level in its (short) history at the beginning of the month, with each and every one of the sub-components posting a decline from the prior month. Declines under the current situation component outweighed those seen in the (future) expectations component, however not by very much. In the second week of July the June consumer price index rose to its highest y/y level on record. This is not a major feat considering that records only began in 2002 because a new and improved statistical measure was adopted. Similarly the harmonized CPI reading was also at all time highs towering above the 3.4% lifetime average at 5.1%. Core CPI was tame compared to the general CPI reading, however the core CPI retouched its second highest level since late 2002. The Y/Y reading on June producer prices rose to 9.0% their highest reading since February of 1985 boosted by higher commodity prices. Last week the Spanish unemployment rate posted its fifth consecutive quarterly gain, moving back to levels not seen since Q4 of 2004. Inflationary pressure, weaker growth, and declining sentiment have all been coupled with less optimistic comments from Spanish officials. Last week, for instance, the Spanish government cut its 2008 GDP growth forecast to 1.6% from 2.3%. Spanish Finance Minister Pedro Solbes said that the ECB's recent interest rate hike is having an impact on Spanish growth, and later said that he expects Spanish inflation to rise further. While the weak state of the Spanish housing sector, and the slow deterioration of
Spain's economic outlook are no secret one must ask how bad can the picture get? While the Spanish economy may have (a good few years back) had an economic picture with a linear structure similar to that of a cubist painting, its structure now resembles something more in the vain of abstract expressionism (think Jackson Pollack). European officials have acknowledged Spain's situation. The ECB's Trichet, for instance, said mid-July that the ECB will not alter its policies to help Spain (and Ireland), noting that policy must be optimal for all areas. S&P warned that credit default swaps in Spain (amongst other EU countries) are on the rise and risk rising further as the economy is under-performing its brother and sister economies. As I've mentioned many times before it is worth questioning how long a one-speed monetary policy can be sustained before the governed economics shift in different directions and the whole thing doesn't make sense anymore. The possibility exists for everything to pan out perfectly as time progresses, but its strikes me as being highly unlikely given developments over the past couple of months. With all of this in mind the Euro-Zone CPI estimate is due out later this week, and is expected to rise to a new all time high. While the ECB is expected to hold rates at next week's meeting, the hawkish rhetoric over the past few weeks could have negative implications for Spain if the ECB strikes into action. Continued gains in the CPI estimate and related measures may spark an ECB rate hike in the near term if declines in M3 are not sustained.

·“It is better to fail in originality than to succeed in imitation” - Herman Melville

 

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.


 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105