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Forex Research - Euro Consolidates at 1.5600 - Will ADP Provide a Clue to Payrolls

After collapsing for nearly 200 points in yesterday’s trade the EURUSD spent most of the night quietly consolidating its losses in a 1.5560-1.5600 range.

Talking Points
   
•    Japanese Yen: Industrial Production misses to the downside
•    Euro:  Retail PMI recovers but confidence plunges to new lows
•    British Pound: Blanchflower bleak on data
•    US Dollar: ADP on tap


Euro Consolidates at 1.5600 – Will ADP Provide a Clue to Payrolls

After collapsing for nearly 200 points in yesterday’s trade the EURUSD spent most of the night quietly consolidating its losses in a 1.5560-1.5600 range. The focus in the currency market has clearly shifted away from fears about the slowdown in the US economy to concerns  about the rapidly deteriorating economic conditions in the EZ.   

The sharper scrutiny of European economic data finally triggered a deluge of sales as momentum players bailed out of the pair all day long as the reality of slowdown in global economic growth has finally hit the 15 member region. In economic news tonight the results were mixed with Retail PMI data staging a mild rebound from 44.00 to 46.00 but confidence gauges plunging to new lows. Economic sentiment dipped to 89.5 from 93 forecast and Services confidence contracted from a reading of 9 to 1.

The conditions on the ground in the EZ suggest an sudden and dramatic decline in demand. Therefore, hawkish rhetoric notwithstanding we believe that that ECB’s tightening cycle has come to a screeching halt. Tomorrow’s German labor data should provide the final clue to the market.  If unemployment in the region’s largest economy actually rose the chances of any further rate hikes from Mr. Trichet and company will be reduced to nil. In fact the bankers in Frankfurt will be assailed with pleas of rate cuts from the EZ Economic ministers looking for relief.

Meanwhile in Switzerland the KOF index of leading indicators confirmed that the slowdown has spread to EZ neutral neighbor as it missed expectations printing at 90 versus 95 forecast.  The SNB which usually shadows the ECB in rate policy chose to remain stationary at its last meeting in June. Since then conditions have deteriorated significantly and as a result the chances of any additional tightening form the SNB have decreased markedly, leaving the Swissie vulnerable to continued carry trade flows as the interest differential has widened.

In North America session today all eyes will be on the ADP report as traders try to get an edge on the upcoming NFP numbers due out this Friday.  Although the ADP data has been notoriously inaccurate in handicapping the actual NFP number, markets will be looking more at the direction of the data rather than its absolute value. If the ADP release suggests that unemployment increased but at a slower pace, the dollar rally may continue for rest of the day. However if the ADP print surprises to the downside the EURUSD could begin to retrace its losses as fears of deepening contraction in US economy will stop the dollar rally cold.




Will EUR/USD Trade to 1.65?  Join us in EURUSD Forum

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