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Wednesday July 30, 2008 - 11:22:17 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: European Data Continues its Multi-Year High/Low Trend


·SP June Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -9.8% v -5.3% prior

·SP June Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -7.9% v -5.3% prior

·IT June PPI: M/M 0.8% v 0.8%e || Y/Y 8.2% v 8.2%e

·EU July Business Climate: -0.21 v -0.02e || Prior revised from 0.14 to 0. 13

·EU July Consumer Confidence: -20 v -18e

·EU July Economic Confidence: 89.5 v 93.0e || Prior revised from 94.9 to 94.8

·EU July Industrial Confidence: -8 v -7e

·EU July Services Confidence: 1 v 8e

·SZ July KOF Swiss Leading Indicator: 0.90 v 0.95e || Prior revised from 1.01 to 0.99

·BE July CPI: M/M 0.53% v 0.56% prior || Y/Y 5.91% v 5.80% prior


·European Aeronautic Defense [EAD. FR] reported 1H net income of €403M, below the €673M consensus. EBIT came in at €1.16B, below the €1.35B consensus, while revenue of €19.7M was above expectations of €19.4B. The company reported the 1H order intake at €51.2B, down from €70.1B a year ago. EADS noted a €17B revaluation on the weaker dollar. Furthermore the company said that they are on track to reach over 850 aircraft orders in 2008, forecasting470 Airbus deliveries in 2008. EADS guided FY08 EBIT of €1.8B, below expectations of €1.95B, and revenue of €40B, roughly in line with the €40.5B consensus. [Shares were +0.6% in early trading] Fresenius Medical Care [FME.GE] reported Q2 earnings per share of $0.71, just above the $0.70 estimate, and revenue of $2.66B in line with the $2.64B consensus. The company reaffirmed its FY08 net profit guidance of $805M-$825M and revenue guidance of $10.4B. Estimates are $831M and $10.6B respectively. [Shares were -0.2% in early trading] ArcelorMittal [MTP.FR] reported Q2 net income of $5.8B, well above the $4.11B consensus, EBITA of $8.0B, above the $6.8B consensus, and revenue of $37.8B above estimates of $34.9B. Q2 shipments rose slightly to 29.8M tons v 29.2M tons y/y. Arcelor guided Q3 EBITDA of “over $8.5B,” above estimates of $6.85B. [Shares were +8.4% in early trading] Deutsche Postbank [DPB.GE] reported Q2 net income of €119M, in line with the €118M consensus, and pretax pf €171M, just above the €168M consensus. Postbank's tier 1 capital ratio decline to 6.3% from 6.9% at the end of 2007. Postbank's Q2 Loan loss provision was €86M, in line with expectations of €80M. The company reported total writedowns of €143M for Q2, and guided FY08 pretax of €1.2B, above estimates of €981M. [Shares were +5.2% in early trading] Siemans [SIE.GE] reported Q3 net income of €1.37B, well above the €968M consensus. Revenue of Q3 rose to €19.2B, above estimates of €18.6B, while orders came in at €23.7B, above estimates of €21.5B. The company expects FY08 sales to grow twice as fast as global GDP, and reiterated that FY08 operating profit to be flat y/y. [Shares were +6.0% in early trading] Erste Bank [EBS.AS] reports Q2 net income of €321M, just shy of the €324M consensus, and net interest income of €1.15B, in line with the €1.17B consensus. The loan loss provision for Q2 was €221M, above estimates of €180M. [Shares were -1.5% in early trading] Bayer [BAY.GE] reported Q2 net income of €574M, just below the €582M consensus. Ex-items EBITDA came in at €1.90B, in line with the €1. 88B estimate, while revenue of €8.51B exceeded the €8.36B consensus estimate. Bayer guidedFY08 revenue growth “over 5% y/y” implying revenue of €34B or more, which exceed the €33.2B consensus. [Shares were +0.8% in early trading] Remy Cointreau [RCO.FR] reported FY08 net income of €98.4M, estimates of €89.6M, and operating profit of €159M, in line with the €160M consensus. Revenue of €818M was in line with expectations. Remy does not see organic growth in 2008/09 operating profit, and sees
US economic slowdown impacting FY08/09 results. Furthermore Remy expects an adverse impact from the EUR/USD exchange rate. [Shares were -5.0% in early trading] Man AG [MAN.GE] reported Q2 net income of €442M, above estimates of €414Me, and operating profit of €627M, well above the €495M consensus. Revenue rose to €4.26B, and exceed the €4.0B consensus. Man AG guided FY08 revenue growth of "a good 10% y/y," implying €17.05B, in line with the €16.99B consensus. [Shares were +2.5% in early trading] Llyods TSB [LLOY.UK] reported 1H net income of £576M, well belo estimates of £881.1M, and revenue of £4.63B, below estimates of £5.4B. The company reported 1H bad loans of £1.1B, above the £973M consensus. [Shares were -0.5% in early trading] Deutsche Lufthansa [LHA.GE] reported Q2 net income of €345M, above the €334.5M consensus, and operating profit of €517M, above the €507M consensus. Revenue of €6.47B exceeded estimates of €6.37B. Lufthansa said that it may report decline 2008 results from 2007 levels if oil prices do not decline, and forecasted 2008 fuel costs of €5.56B. [Shares were +1.5% in early trading] Cadbury [CBRY.UK] reported 1H net income of £143M, below the £182M consensus. 1H pretax came in at £223M, above estimates of £195Me, while revenue was in line with expectations of £2.65B. Cadbury said that it sees FY08 revenue growth at the upper end of the previously issued range and margin growth in line with forecasts. [Shares were +1.5% in early trading] Finally, Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas [FCC.SP] reported 1H net income of €202M, above the €196.6M consensus, on revenue of €7.05B, which was above the €6.82B consensus. [Shares were +7.5% in early trading] Earnings aside an analyst at JP Morgan said overnight that he sees additional writedowns from some major European banks. The analyst forecasted additional writedowns of CHF8.4B writedown at UBS [UBSN.SZ], €3. 0B at Societe Generale [GLE.FR], €2.7B at Natixis [KN.FR], and €5.6B at Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE].

·In the newspapers the Heard on the Street column in the Wall Street Journal examined the implications of Merrill's recent discounted CDO sale overnight. According to the article other financials should mark down their CDO assets as much as Merrill did. The article noted that Merrill's recent $30B CDO sale valued the assets at an average price of 22 cents on the dollar. The article said that investors may want to use Merrill's CDO sale to ask tougher questions about values being assigned to commercial-real estate holdings at firms such as Lehman and to the allowances for loan losses taken by many regional banks. Furthermore the article said that, for Merrill, by financing 75% of the $6. 7B sale price for its CDOs, it could still be exposed to loss if the CDO values fall by an added 25%.

·In currencies the USD consolidated its recent gains against the majors overnight. The GBP tested and held its former June pivot point of 1.9770, while the EUR/USD hovered around the 1.56-handle during the European morning. Dealer attention was focused on recent press articles that growth slump may force
Italy out of the Euro Zone.

·In new supply
Italy sold €1.0B in 2014 floating rate notes with an average yield of 3.92% and a bid-to-cover of 3.35x, as well as €2. 5B in 3.75% 2011 bonds with an average yield of 4.64% and a bid-to-cover of 1.5x, and €3.0B in 4.50% 2018 bonds with an average yield of 5.00% and a bid-to-cover of 1.3x.

·All was quiet on the speaker front. Spaniish Finance Minister Solbes said overnight that
Spain inflation may increase in July and August. The Bank of England's Blanchflower said in a radio interview overnight that recent UK data has been bad, adding that the UK retail sector has seen bad news recently.

·*** NOTES ***

·Following a slew of European earnings today it is important to highlight that quite a number of rather large companies had something to say about the high Euro exchange rate. Bayer said that it expects a €1.65B burden on sales form the strong Euro in 2008. European Aeronautic Defense noted €17B revaluation on the weaker dollar during the first half of the year. Remy Cointreau noted a €17B revaluation on the weaker dollar for the full-year 2008. Rhodia said that the high Euro coupled with high commodity prices has impacted its bottom line. These are big companies!

·Regarding today's data we saw more of the same (ie. multi-year highs and lows). I won't go through them all as almost everything that was released was either a new high or low, but I will point out a few. The y/y reading on Belgian CPI was the highest since August of 1984. Euro-Zone consumer confidence was the lowest since May of 2003. The y/y reading on Italian PPI was the highest since November of 1995. Both of the y/y real retail sales readings in
Spain (adjusted and unadjusted) were the lowest on record.

·“Mistakes are the portals of discovery” - James Joyce


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