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Friday August 1, 2008 - 10:27:57 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Markets Await Non-Farm Payrolls


·GE June Retail Sales: M/M -1.4% v -0.5%e || Prior revised fro m1.3% to 0.5% |||| Y/Y -3.9% v -0.8%e || Prior revised from 0.7% to 1.0%

·SW July Swedbank PMI: 48.6 v 49.7e

·SP July Manufacturing PMI: 39.2 v 40.6 prior

·IT July Manufacturing PMI: 45.3 v 45.9e

·FR July Final Manufacturing PMI: 47.1 v 47.3e

·GE July Final Manufacturing PMI: 50. 9 v 50.9e

·UK July Manufacturing PMI: 44.3 v 45.5e

·RU Russian Central Bank raises reserve requirement (unexpected; details not yet released)


·BMW Group [BMW.GE] adjusts its outlook overnight due to difficult market conditions. BMW guided 1H Q2 pretax profit of €602M, down from €1.07B a year ago, net income of €507M, down from €753M a year ago, and revenue of €14.55B, below the €15.4B consensus. BMW's risk provision expense increased to €695M. A spokesperson said that business conditions for the automobile industry have deteriorated sharply over the past weeks. [Shares were -10.8% in early trading]. British Airways [BAY.UK] reported Q2 net income of £27M, below the £35M consensus, and operating profit of £35M, below the £55M consensus. Revenue of £2.26B was just above the £2.21B consensus. The company said that it is facing the worst trading environment in its history, and cut its FY08 revenue growth forecast to +3% from +4%. [Shares were -5.0% in early trading]. UCB [UCB.BE] reported 1H net income of €108M, above the €100M consensus, and revenue of €1.7B, just below the €1.75B consensus. UCB guided FY08 revenue of “over €3.3B” above the €3.27B consensus, and EBITDA of “about €650M,” above the €600M consensus. [Shares were +0.5% in early trading]. Electricitie de France [EDF.FR] reported 1H net income of €3.08B, just below the €3.13B consensus. EBITDA for the 1H came in at €9.04B, just above the €8.97B forecast, while revenue of €32.2B was just above the €32B consensus. [Shares were -1.0% in early trading]. Linde [LIN.GE] reported Q2 net income of €215M, well above the €150M consensus, and pretax of €305M, above the €237M expected. Revenue for Q2 came in at €3.34B, above the €3.1B consensus. Linde reaffirmed both its short and mid-term forecasts. [Shares were +1.0% in early trading]. Enel [ENEL.IT] reported 1H net income of €2.85B, well above the €2.21B consensus, and revenue of €29.3B in line with consensus estimates. Enel reported EBITDA of €7.41B, up from the €4.46B a year ago, and confirmed its outlook for FY08. [Shares were flat in early trading]. StatoilHydro [STL.NO] reported Q2 net income of NOK18.9B, above the NOK17.5B consensus, and operating profit of NOK62.6B, above the NOK59.9B forecast. Revenue of NOK170.6B was below the NOK185.4B consensus. [Shares were -2.9% in early trading]. EDF [EDF.FR] and British Energy [BGY.UK] announced that they were unable to strike a deal overnight.

·In currencies the focus will be US payrolls data due out later today. In the hours leading up to the key data, the USD has encountered a consolidating tone. The USD was supported by a growing consensus that the Euro-Zone economic situation is 'less robust'. Dealers seemed to be focusing on a possible contraction in Q2 Euro- Zone GDP as hinted by an alleged ECB source on Thursday. The GBP was broadly lower in the session against its major pairs as dealers noted that comments from BOE's Tucker made on Thursday were seen in a 'dovish' manner. The BOE's Tucker noted that the weaker economic outlook should help contain CPI risks. Softer metal prices and lower crude has been weakening the commodity-related currency pairs. The AUD maintained its soft tone in Europe as dealers suggest that the RBA may have pushed rates too high as an insurance policy and will likely lower rates in the coming quarters.

·*** NOTES ***

·After a long, tiring week of earnings things were relatively quiet overnight. With the exception of Germany, PMI reading in Europe were below the 50 mark indicating a contracting, with most readings declining to new multi-year lows. German retail sales were below expectations, but managed to stay within its recent range. On the equity front BMW's reduction to its outlook was in focus overnight along with the breakdown of talks between EDF and British Energy. On the equity/fixed income front the Vereinte Dienstleistungsgewerkschaft (or ver.di union) reached a wage agreement with Lhufshansa. Ground and cabin employees will receive a 5% wage increase from July, an additional 2.3% wage increase in July of 2009, and a one time bonus of 2.4%. Recall that the ECB is monitoring wage developments for possible second round inflation effects. Looking ahead the focus will be on the July change in nonfarm payrolls. Payrolls are expected at -75K; June's reading was -62K. That data will be released at 8:30 ET.

·“Every man has a right to risk his own life for the preservation of it.” - Jean Jacques Rousseau

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