User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday August 1, 2008 - 21:13:13 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - US Dollar Depends On Fed For Direction Next Week - Watch What They Say, Not What They Do


• Euro Slide May Continue On German Retail Sales, Swiss CPI Hits Nearly 15-Year High
• British Pound: Manufacturing PMI Adds To UK Recession Risks

US Dollar Depends On Fed For Direction Next Week - Watch What They Say, Not What They Do
The US dollar’s consolidation continued on Friday as US non-farm payrolls (NFPs) failed to have a lasting impact on the currency. While the currency did initially jump across the majors on the news that NFPs were not quite as bad as expected at -51K (consensus expectation: -75K), the greenback pulled back over the following two hours. There were a few factors coming in to play here. First, the unemployment rate actually rose more than anticipated to a 4+ year high of 5.7 percent from 5.5 percent, highlighting the fact that NFPs have fallen for seven months in a row and the labor markets remain exceptionally weak (see our NFP Instant Insight for more). This was followed by the 10:00 EDT release of ISM Manufacturing, which fell less than expected to a reading of 50.0 in July (consensus forecast: 49.0) from 50.2, signaling a stagnation of activity in the sector. Looking at a breakdown of the report, an increase in production was offset by a contraction in new orders. Meanwhile, the prices paid component surprisingly showed that they grew at a slower pace, which should help to lessen the Federal Reserve's inflation concerns. The most startling part of the release, however, was the surge in the employment component to 51.9 from 43.7, which indicates a marked rise in hiring. This certainly would have been helpful ahead of the NFP release since it was a bit better-than-forecasts, but at the same time, would have been misleading since the report ultimately reflected net job losses in the sector. Looking ahead, Tuesday’s Federal Reserve meeting will be THE key event of next week. However, this has less to do with the actual rate decision (the FOMC is widely expected to leave rates steady at 2.00 percent) and more to do with what they say in their subsequent policy statement, as inflation-focused comments could easily drive the US dollar higher.

Euro Continues to Flounder As Additional Signs of Slowdown Emerge
The Euro did little but consolidate below 1.5580 on Friday, as German retail sales proved to be weaker-than-expected at -1.4 percent for the month of June. While this didn’t necessarily impact the currency much, the release will be useful a leading indicator for next week’s Euro-zone retail sales report and only adds to the pile of evidence suggesting that economic growth in the region is slowing rapidly. As a result, we’re likely to see the European Central Bank leave rates unchanged at 4.25 percent next Thursday. However, like the Federal Reserve, it is commentary by central bankers after the meeting that will have the greatest impact on the Euro. Estimates for Euro-zone CPI in July jumped to a fresh 16-year high of 4.1 percent from 4.0 percent, which is well above the ECB’s 2 percent target as energy and food costs remain high. Thus, there’s little doubt ‘price stability’ will be the foremost concern for Mr. Trichet, but if he suggests that a broad economic slowdown could bring price pressures down in coming months, the euro could actually sell-off across the majors.

British Pound: Manufacturing PMI Adds To UK Recession Risks
On Thursday, we discussed how the British pound remained weak and questioned if GBP/USD would continue to fall to target 1.97. This was indeed the case, as the currency tumbled versus the US dollar, Japanese yen, Euro, and Swiss franc at the start of the European trading session. However, this move actually occurred before the release of UK manufacturing PMI, which hit a decade low of 44.3 in July. This was the third consecutive month that this indicator held below 50 – signaling a contraction in business activity – as factories grapple with rising raw material costs and slowing global and domestic demand. With the UK economy at risk of falling into recession, some Monetary Policy Committee members of the Bank of England – such as David Blanchflower – see an immediate need to cut rates. On the other hand, the June reading of UK CPI jumped further above their 2 percent target to 3.8 percent and upside risks remain, which has encouraged the majority of members to leave rates steady at 5 percent. We expect similar sentiment during next week’s meeting, as the MPC is anticipated to leave rates unchanged once again. Since they are unlikely to issue a monetary policy statement, the market’s reaction to the news should be relatively very muted as traders will await the release of the meeting minutes on August 20 as a gauge of the BoE’s bias.

Australian, New Zealand Dollars Plunge As Commodity Boom Loses Steam

Commodity prices are no longer spiraling out of control, and as a result, currencies like the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars have plunged in recent weeks. Over the past five days alone, AUD/USD has plummeted nearly 300 points while NZD/USD has dropped almost 200 points. However, both pairs have recently run into some support, but with economic indicators out of the Australian, NZ, and Canadian regions expected to be widely disappointing, the losses for these commodity currencies may not be over quite yet.

Japanese Yen Holds Up Versus Weak Euro, British Pound

Many of the Japanese yen crosses have been mixed lately, with the currency still somewhat weak against the US dollar, but gaining some ground versus the Euro and British pound. There was no pertinent economic data on hand for the currency, though it’s questionable if that matters as the yen is likely waiting for the next big shift in risk appetite market-wide. Since Federal Reserve news can have a huge impact on US equity indexes, traders should look to Tuesday’s FOMC rate decision and policy statement, as this could be a major source of price action for the Japanese yen next week.




Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Strategist for

 Questions? Comments? E-mail: [email protected]



Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105