Friday November 19, 2004 - 01:25:08 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 19th November 2004 Price: ... 104.33
Resistance: 104.40 ... 104.57 ... 104.70 ... 105.15
Support....: 104.03 ... 103.80 ... 103.52 ... 103.14
While 104.57 holds we remain bearish to 103.52 at least and suspect to 102.75-80
The dip yesterday reached to just above oour 103.52 target, recovering from 103.64 back to 104.40 thus far. We see this and 104.51-57 as key levels on the upside and only above here would cause us to begin to look for extension of the recovery to the 105.15-25 pivot resistance at least and possibly as high as the 105.67 corrective high.
Price developed close to expectations with a recovery from 103.64 back to the critical resistance which we now see as being in the 104.40-57 area. We tend to feel this will hold and cause a move back lower. To assist this view we will need to see a break back below the 104.03 low seen this morning which would accelerate losses down to the 103.42-52 area and we suspect down to 102.75-80 before a further pullback is expected..
Elliott Wave Comments:
November 16th 2004
All looked to be progressing well by Thursday with a move to 107.28 that appeared to come in a double zig-zag. The decline on Friday down to 105.30 is therefore concerning as it would appear to suggest a larger move lower. However, being close we feel it prudent to wait for break of 105.22-27 before abandoning the Wave[iv] rally. If this does occur we should be seeing an attack of 104.60 at least and possibly even the 103.42 low which will be the next larger support in a flat correction. Watch the 104.60 area which is implied within an expanded flat correction and a bounce from there above 105.20-30 could generate a stronger move higher towards the 107.28 corrective peak and possibly up to the 107.65 Fibonacci retracement level.
November 16th 2004
Losses have been seen in line with our suspicions and we feel this still have some downside with the Wave (c) of Wave [iv] still under development. We have two targets, the first being at 103.52 being where Wave (c) is equal to Wave (a) and also at 102.75-80 where Wave (c) is equal to Wave (a) x 138.2%. Given that the move down to 103.78 appears still to be part of the Wave (iii) of Wave (c) we actually look for a low around 103.52 followed by Wave (iv) and a final decline to 102.75 in Wave (v) of Wave (c).
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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