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Thursday April 22, 2004 - 01:01:35 GMT
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Dollar set to make gains over the coming days

General Market Conditions

The Dollar had a strange day yesterday, still in keeping with our underlying bullish stance but without the direct advances we had expected. We are rather mixed at this point and within the overall bullish structure we see a couple of short term patterns that could evolve. We believe the next major move will take us to 111.50-.65 Yen, 1.1490 Euro, 1.3385 Swissie and 1.7445 British Pound. To avoid further complex consolidation we shall need to see certain resistance levels broken, these being at 110.05-25 Yen, 1.1775 Euro, 1.3205-25 Swissie and 1.7595-1.7620 British Pound. While there could be a choppy consolidation it is probably better to err on the side of bullishness since this is where the greater risk lies.


USDJPY
Price: 109.50

Day View
Resistance: 109.75 ... 110.05 ... 110.25 ... 110.45
Support....: 109.25 ... 109.05 ... 108.65 ... 108.50

Bias: Cautiously higher

Bullish: Good strength seen yesterday and this encourages us. We remain bullish but do watch for a possible pullback to the 108.25-50 area though it is quite possible that a higher area around 108.70 may hold. Once above 109.25 gains should follow-through to 109.60 at least and we suspect this should reach 109.85-90. Further resistance is at 110.10 and 110.70.

Bearish: The pullback from 109.73 to 108.65 looks corrective and we cannot get too bearish. The only chance we see of making gains on the downside is on rejection at 110.05-20 and a move back below 109.50 would suggest a move back to retest 108.65. Support is also seen at 109.10.



Week View
Resistance: 110.20 ... 111.55 ... 112.00 ... 114.10
Support....: 108.50 ... 107.10 ... 106.65 ... 105.80

Gains were not as strong as expected yesterday and while price remains above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud we need to see 108.50-65 continue to hold to generate a further move higher. Schaff Trend Cycle is rising but close to 100 while FXS-RSI has rallied towards overbought territory but is dipping slightly. With weekly cycles bullish we retain an underlying bullish view in spite of the deeper pullback and look for renewed strength towards 111.55 at least and we suspect higher towards 112.00-30.

Bullish: Although not exactly to expectations we are seeing the Dollar make headway on the upside and we continue to look for these advances to take price higher. While a direct rally is possible we would prefer for 108.50-65 to hold and break of 110.05-25 would imply follow-through to 111.50-65 at least and we suspect further to 112.30-65 en route 114.10 and 114.90.

Bearish: Continued advanced higher do not favor a bearish stance. We need to see a move below 108.50 to generate any deeper pullback and only on this break would we look for a further dip to the 106.80-107.20 pivot support areas which we feel is firm and should hold.


Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 109.25 ... 111.15 ... 112.30 ... 114.90
Support....: 104.80 ... 103.30 ... 101.30 ..... 99.50

Having seen a move back above the 107.21-65 area the emphasis appears to be back on the upside in line with the bullish weekly and monthly cycles. We require 104.80-00 to hold for this and a move back above 109.25 would encourage gains up to 111.15, 112.32 with 114.90 being a higher target to keep in mind. Back below 104.80 would threaten the 103.42 low and call for losses down to 100.40.


EURUSD
Price: 1.1845

Day View
Resistance: 1.1830 ... 1.1865 ... 1.1885 ... 1.1915
Support....: 1.1775 ... 1.1755 ... 1.1725 ... 1.1655

Bias: Cautiously lower but wait for a break of 1.1775

Bullish: Further losses seen yesterday that have seen a move to 1.1775 this morning. This is a short term important support and while this holds any break back above 1.8120-30 would imply a move back to test the 1.1915 level at least with risk of marginal follow-through to 1.1925-35. However, we see no further higher than this.

Bearish: Although we have seen losses to 1.1775 this morning we really need a break of this level to avoid a move back to the 1.1915-30 area. Thus, from a test of 1.1915 or a direct break of 1.1770 would trigger further losses down to 1.1655 at least and we suspect there could be a break here that would then imply losses down to 1.1560 and possibly as far as 1.1490-1.1510.



Week View
Resistance: 1.1940 ... 1.2020 ... 1.2077 ... 1.2220
Support....: 1.1775 ... 1.1655 ... 1.1560 ... 1.1490

Yesterday's losses below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud continue to encourage the bearish view. Schaff TC1 is now at zero while FXS-RSI has matched this decline into oversold territory and is rising but shows no sign of a reversal signal. While there is risk of a short term consolidation we feel this will hold below 1.1915-40 and generate losses to 1.1490.

Bullish: Further losses do not encourage a bullish stance. In fact we consider the 1.1915-40 the maximum we expect to see on the topside. Thus only above 1.1940 would generate follow-through towards 1.2077 once again.

Bearish: We continue to consider our underlying bearish stance looking for a decline below the Double Top target around 1.1730-50 and feel the wave structure is shaping up for a larger decline that should exceed the 1.1560 target and first reach 1.1490. This may provide a short respite to the downside but we would expect more later.

Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.2085 ... 1.2325 ... 1.2455 ... 1.2655
Support....: 1.1720 ... 1.1560 ... 1.1310 ... 1.1165

While the progress lower has been choppy we do feel that the repeated rejection around 1.2400-55 and the decline from there should now allow price to move down to the Double Top target around 1.1720-50 and we suspect now a stronger decline. Support at 1.1560 may hold for a while but we while 1.1820-50 holds we consider the larger risk to be lower to 1.1165 over the next 4-6 weeks.


USDCHF
Price: 1.3170

Day View
Resistance: 1.3195 ... 1.3220 ... 1.3255 ... 1.3305
Support....: 1.3145 ... 1.3115 ... 1.3095 ... 1.3040

Bias: Cautiously higher but wait for break of 1.3225

Bullish: Strength followed through to 1.3173 and this morning towards 1.3195. Overall we continue to consider the structure as bullish but we do see a short term risk of seeing 1.3205-20 hold today's advance to generate a second pullback. Thus only a direct breach of 1.3220-25 would trigger further aggressive gains that we would look to see reach 1.3305 and probably 1.3385 by end of day.

Bearish: The underlying wave structure remains bullish. However, there is one short term pattern that would see 1.3205-20 holding and a move back below 1.3145-50 would provoke a second dip down to the strong 1.3040-50 support area. However, if seen this should hold and allow the uptrend to resume.



Week View
Resistance: 1.3225 ... 1.3385 ... 1.3490 ... 1.3620
Support....: 1.3040 ... 1.2960 ... 1.2885 ... 1.2825

It is encouraging to see further gains above 4-hour Pivot Cloud and consider this as continued sign of strength. Schaff Trend Cycle has remained at 100 while FXS-RSI is now declining in overbought territory. The progress seen thus far still points to a higher Dollar with 1.3205-25 still possibly providing a short term pullback to 1.3040 but once above 1.3225 look for gains to 1.3385 and 1.3490.

Bullish: The uptrend continues to make ground and we look for this to continue over the coming week. The only possible short term dent to this is a rejection at 1.3205-25 which would prompt a return to 1.3040. However, we see this as good support and would look for gains from there - or a direct breach of 1.3225 - to take price higher to 1.3385 and then 1.3490. Further resistance is found at 1.3620.

Bearish: Continued gains really provide no indication of any pending downside. The most we can see is a retest of the pivot support at 1.3040 which was tested yesterday. However, only a clean break of this support would surprise and provoke a move back down to the next major pivot support between 1.2680-1.2720 which would be expected to hold if seen.

Month View
(Updated 3rd April)
Resistance: 1.3085 ... 1.3235 ... 1.3410 ... 1.3700
Support....: 1.2625 ... 1.2515 ... 1.2180 ... 1.1700

The expected move higher has met with some early choppy price action but we feel this should now move onto the 1.3220-35 area this month at the very least and do see some risk of seeing gains extend to 1.3410. Watch this area since it could cause a pullback. Further resistance is around 1.3700.


GBPUSD
Price: 1.7690

Day View
Resistance: 1.7715 ... 1.7730 ... 1.7755 ... 1.7770
Support....: 1.7670 ... 1.7650 ... 1.7620 ... 1.7595

Bias: The larger underlying risk is lower but there could be further consolidation first

Bullish: Losses continued and do not provide much support for a bullish stance. However, should 1.7650-55 continue to hold and a move is seen back above 1.7715 we could then see continuation of the consolidation and a move back towards 1.7815. However, only above there suggests a stronger pattern. Next resistance is at 1.7840-50 which is also firm.

Bearish: The 1.7650-55 support was tested yesterday and has held thus far. This may well continue to hold for further sideways consolidation and thus only a break here would provoke follow-through 1.7620 and 1.7595 and if this area breaks then look for a stronger decline down to 1.7445 which should hold.



Week View
Resistance: 1.7840 ... 1.7900 ... 1.7980 ... 1.8065
Support....: 1.7650 ... 1.7595 ... 1.7445 ... 1.7320

Losses have taken price further below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and to the first target at 1.7650-55. Schaff Trend Cycle is now at zero while FXS-RSI has continued its decline deep into oversold territory but without displaying any reversal signal. While a short term consolidation is possible we do look for an eventual break of 1.7650 to trigger losses down to 1.7445 at least.

Bullish: The declines continue to work their way lower and provide no backdrop for a bullish stance. Thus only above 1.7840-50 would generate any stronger pullback with next resistance at 1.7900 and 1.7975. However, this is given low risk.

Bearish: The first target at 1.7650 was reached yesterday and may well cause a brief spell of consolidation which could see price ranging between 1.7650-1.7815-40. However, we do look for losses to continue and retain an initial target at 1.7445 which could be seen quite quickly once initial supports break at 1.7650 with 1.7595-1.7620 providing the only possible intermediate barrier.

Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.8300 ... 1.8605 ... 1.8875 ... 1.9025
Support....: 1.7650 ... 1.7165 ... 1.6905 ... 1.6565

The move lower has met with a choppy start but we feel that we should now see losses resume and expect to see progress to the next support at 1.7650 this week. From there we should see a correction develop but the coming 4-6 weeks looks bearish towards 1.7165.

 

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