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Wednesday August 13, 2008 - 11:05:55 GMT
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Forex Research - Pound Drops As King Says Economy Facing Difficult, Painful Adjustment

The Pound fell nearly 100 points after BoE Governor stated that the U.K. economy faces a difficult, painful adjustment and that the “balance of risks are on the downside”. The central bank leader would go on to say that although near term inflation risks remain elevated, that a sharp decline in growth will reduce the medium term risks of price stability and that expectations are that consumer prices will return to their 2% target within two years.

Talking Points   

•    Japanese Yen: Runs Into Resistance at 110
•    Euro:  Industrial Production Flat in June
•    British Pound: King Says Downside Risks OutWeigh Inflation Concerns
•    US Dollar: Retail Sales on tap

The Pound fell nearly 100 points after BoE Governor stated that the U.K. economy faces a difficult, painful adjustment and that the “balance of risks are on the downside”. The central bank leader would go on to say that although near term inflation risks remain elevated, that a sharp decline in growth will reduce the medium term risks of price stability and that expectations are that consumer prices will return to their 2% target within two years. U.K. also unemployment rose to 2.7% from 2.6% in July, as jobless claims increase by 20,100. It was the sixth straight month of increasing unemployment and the second consecutive above 20,000. The worst housing slump in a quarter century, rising raw material costs and a slowing global economy have eaten away at corporate profits which has forced companies to cut expenses. Therefore, the  BoE may have to cut rates by the end of the year to prevent a recession.

The EUR/USD price action during the overnight sessions was choppy as it bounced from resistance at 1.4980 and support at 1.4900. The region’s June industrial production report showed activity remained flat after the previous month’s biggest drop in nearly 16 years. Producers have had to battle rising input costs and softening demand due to a strong Euro and slowing global growth on the back of the U.S. credit crisis. The European economy more than likely contracted in the second quarter which has moved ECB officials off their hawkish bias and resulted in the Euro recent weakness. Although the central bank isn’t expected to cut rates in 2008, as growth slows expect the cries for action from European leaders to grow louder.

The upcoming retail sales report will present significant event risk for the dollar as the U.S. consumer is expected to have curbed their spending, after they have exhausted their rebate checks. The expected 0.1% decline may be underestimating the headwinds that consumers have been facing from rising gas and food prices, a housing slump and a deteriorating labor market.  Wholesale inventories in June rose 1.1% as retailers have cut back their purchases in anticipation of a slower back to school season, which could set the tone for the end of the year shopping season which accounts for 70% of purchases. The dollar will struggle to build on its recent gains if the outlook for consumption diminishes. However, a better than expected result could


Will The  EUR/USD Continue to Fall?  Join us in EURUSD Forum

For More Fundamental Analysis, Check Out Our Other Daily Reports.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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