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Wednesday August 13, 2008 - 11:24:33 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update for Wednesday August 13th: BOE paints a slowing GDP outlook


- (CH) Jul M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 16.35% v 17. 1%e

- (SP) Spain July CPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 5.3% v 5. 2%e

- (SP) Spain July Core CPI M/M: -0.9% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3. 4%e

- (SP) Spain July CPI EU-Harmonized M/M: -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 5. 3% v 5.3%e

- (NO) Norway Jun Retail Sales M/M: -0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0. 1% v 1.0%e

- (UK) Jul Claimant Count Rate: 2.7% v 2.6%e; Jobless Change: 20.1K v 17.0Ke

- Manu. Unit Wage Cost: 1.6% v 1.9% prior

- (UK) Jun Avg Earnings Inc Bonus: 3.4% v 3.6%e; Avg Earnings Ex-Bonus: 3.7% v 3.7%e

- (UK) Jun ILO Unemployment rate: 5.4% v 5. 3%e

- (EU) Jun Euro-Zone industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v 0.2%e

- (UK) BOE Quarterly Inflation Report

- (IT) sells EUR2.5B 4.25% 2019 Bonds

- (GE) Germany Sells EUR4.85B July 2018 Bund, avg yield 4.24%, Bid-to-cover 1.8x v 1.1x prior

- (PO) Portugal sell EUR750M 10-year bonds, avg yield 4.674%, Bid-to-cover 2. 1x v 1.7x prior


·In equity news overnight ING [INGA.NV] reported Q2 Net €1.92b which was above the consensus estimate of €1.56B. For the quarter there was €44M in Write Offs due to subprime The Company stated that it was confident in a long term growth. ING attributed the net declined due to its wholesale banking and insurance underperformance. The bank saw its financial services experiencing unprecedented volatility well into 2009

- Hypo Reat estated [HRZ.GE] reported Q2 Pretax of €17M compared to analyst estimates of €38M. Net interest income came in at €304M versus €298Me, Tier 1 Capital 8.6% v 8.3% q/q.

- K+S AG [SDF.GE]reported Q2 Adj Net €231.1M above the €163M estimates. Op Profit €326.4M was above the €223.5M consensus, Copany sales €1.18B v €1.14B estimate.

- Zurich Financial [ZURN.SZ] reported H1 Net $2.7B against consensus estimates of $2.62Be; ROE 19.5% v 19.1%e. The company stated that it was on track to achieve its efficiency targets of $800M to 2010 and added that it does not have a material CDO exposure.

- Q-Cells [QCE.GE] Reporte H1 Rev €579.5M which was well above analyst estimates of 296M. Its Q2 EBIT came in at €66.1M v €61Me. Q-Cells raised their forecast for 2008 and beyond.

- Thomas Cook [TCG.UK] provided an interim management report. Company stated that trading conditions continue to be strong in the summer months.

- In energy: WSJ reports that oil negotiations between various foreign companies and the Iraqi government appear to have stalled

- Oil ministry officials said they hoped to sign contracts by the end of June and now talks may have hit new snags.

- (CH) China raises consumption tax on 4-liter auto to 40% from 20%; effective in September

- Georgian President Accuses Russia Of Violating Ceasefire. Russia Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov says Russian troops to maintain role in the Southern Ossetia region

- In the papers: Heard on the Street notes that credit problems still exist in markets. WSJ notes that credit markets will remain turbulent until housing prices stablize

- The article adds that wishful thinking with respect to banks about their mortgage-backed holdings is preventing the kind of capitulation needed to get markets trading again.

- Heard on the Street notes that the markets for mortgage-backed securities have worsened, largely due to concerns about the US GSEs and uncertainty over any support the government will have to provide to Fannie and Freddie.

- When looking at the difference in prices between mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie and Treasuries, spreads widened to 0.65% in recent days vs about 0.50% at the time of the Bear Stearns crisis in March.

- NY Times examined whether the short-selling rule helped to boost stock prices.

·*** NOTES ***

- The UK quarterly inflation report highlighted the recent concerns among centrals banks of the delicate balance between growth and inflation. The BOE lowered their GDP outlook for 2009 and expected that a protracted slowdown was necessary to bring CPI back within the 2% target. BOE King says UK economy facing a 'painful' adjustment period which cannot be avoided. The inflation reported was preceded by the UK Claimant count data, which rose by its highest amount in 16 years. European fixed-income futures soared into positive territory following the BOE report. However, equity markets seems concerned over the increase in gloom over the global economic scenario. The financial sectors helping the equities move lower as dealers ponder renewed credit jitters. The UK quarterly report caused sharp price movements in both currencies and fixed-income futures. GBP/USD exhibited weakness following the UK GDP scenario as it tested its lowest level in 2-years at 1. 8760. Sept Gilts up 40 ticks


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