User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday August 13, 2008 - 22:57:28 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

FX Blog - US Dollar Weakens As Retail Sales Fall Negative - Will Inflation Data Revive the Greenback?

• British Pound Plummets As Bank of England Offers Bleak UK Outlook
• Euro Outlook Hinges Upon Thursday’s Euro-zone GDP Report

US Dollar Weakens As Retail Sales Fall Negative – Will Inflation Data Revive the Greenback?
The US dollar slipped against the euro and Swiss franc on Wednesday, as the dollar index is still holding below a falling trendline which connects the late 2005 – 2007 highs. On the other hand, the greenback fell hard against the high-yielding commodity currencies (see more below) but rocketed higher versus the British pound. Data worked against the currency, as US retail sales fell 0.1 percent in July - marking the first negative reading in five months - as motor vehicle purchases plunged 2.4 percent. Excluding autos, the index rose less than expected by 0.4 percent. Looking at a further breakdown of the report, it appears that the decline in average gas prices from over $4/gallon during the last half of July helped to slow the gasoline station component, which only increased 0.8 percent (compared to 4.0 percent in June and 3.3 percent in May). Overall, the report highlights the fact that retailers are at a particular disadvantage in the current economic scenario, as deteriorating labor market conditions and persistently high energy and food prices limit discretionary income. Nevertheless, the data shouldn’t have a big impact on the Federal Reserve’s current bias, as they are well aware of the downside risks to growth, especially those stemming from consumption.

On Thursday, US CPI will hit the wires at 8:30 EDT and could shake up interest rate expectations if the data misses expectations by a large margin. The headline consumer price index for the month of July is expected to rise to an annual rate of 5.1 percent – the highest since February 1991 – and though a bulk of the increase will likely be the result of food price gains, but there is potential for the pullback in oil prices from its July record of nearly $148/bbl down toward $125/bbl to actually weigh on the index a bit. Meanwhile, core CPI is anticipated to show a mild 0.2 percent rise for the month, which would leave the annualized reading at 2.4 percent. However, if any of these figures surprise to the upside or downside, the markets will respond accordingly and the moves could be dramatic.

British Pound Plummets As Bank of England Offers Bleak UK Outlook
The release of the Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report triggered a 300+ pip selloff in the British pound on Wednesday morning, as the central bank offered a bleak picture of UK economic conditions. Indeed, in the report, the BOE revised their growth projections sharply lower for 2008 – 2009 and even said that GDP could be negative for one or two quarters. Furthermore, while CPI forecasts were revised up toward 5 percent through the end of 2008, the inflation outlook was downgraded significantly from 2009 – 2011. What does this mean for interest rates in the UK? Currently, overnight index swaps are pricing in almost 75bps worth of rate cuts over the next 12 months, compared to approximately 50bps in recent days. However, BOE Governor Mervyn King prepared the markets for the worst as he said the UK economy faces a “difficult, painful adjustment,” suggesting that the head of the central bank will seek to leave rates steady through the end of the year – despite the risk of recession – in an attempt to cool inflation. Once we hit 2009 and CPI starts to pullback, though, interest rates are likely to be cut rapidly. In the near-term, GBP/USD could consolidate above Wednesday’s lows near 1.8650, but I still believe that the pair will ultimately move down for a test of 1.85.

Euro Outlook Hinges Upon Thursday’s Euro-zone GDP Report
The Euro continues to trade just above the 2007 highs near 1.4865 – 1.4900, as price consolidates following the massive declines seen over the past week. Indeed, the markets are now pricing in over 25bps worth of rate cuts by the European Central Bank over the next 12 months thanks to ECB President Trichet’s more dovish tone last Thursday. However, Thursday’s release of Euro-zone GDP and CPI could have a huge impact on these rate expectations, though the former is more important at this juncture. Why? Everyone is already well-aware that inflation is a problem in the Euro-zone, but Mr. Trichet turned the spotlight on the weakening economy last week. Now, if these GDP numbers confirm that a slowdown is plaguing the region (GDP is anticipated to contract 0.2 percent in Q2 and slow to a 1.5 percent annualized pace), the markets will be quick to price in more aggressive rate cuts within the next year, which would be quite bearish for the Euro. On the other hand, if the quarterly rate of growth manages to hold positive and CPI rises in line with expectations to 4.1 percent, EUR/USD could rebound above 1.50.

Commodity Dollars Make a Comeback As Oil, Gold Futures Rally
The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar both surged during Wednesday’s trading session as commodities such as gold and oil rebounded. Furthermore, as Quantitative Analyst David Rodriguez discussed in his special report, the Australian dollar forecast has improved following the currency’s record consecutive declines, suggesting that the other comm dollars are likely to do so as well. Meanwhile, with the USD/CAD pair consolidating in a range of 1.0625 – 1.0700, Senior Strategist Jamie Saettele pointed out this morning that the Canadian dollar may provide a good risk/reward trade. With little in the way of event risk out of Canada for the remainder of this week, USD/CAD is likely the safest trade to use in order to take advantage of the near-term prospects for the commodity dollars.

Japanese Yen: Choppy Trade In Indecisive Markets
The Japanese yen rocketed high overnight and this morning across the major, but the low-yielder ultimately ended the day lower – especially versus the high-yielding New Zealand dollar – as key JPY cross support levels were hit. Meanwhile, GDP in Japan contracted 2.4 percent in Q2 from a year earlier due to a decline in exports, housing investment, and consumer spending. With global demand anticipated to slow and Japanese consumers grappling with persistently low wage growth and high food and energy prices, there is little hope for expansion to recover in the near-term. Nevertheless, traders should continue to keep an eye on technical levels and risk sentiment, as the Japanese yen tends to trade based on these factors rather than fundamentals.

South African Rand, Turkish Lira Tumble Ahead of Central Bank Rate Decisions
Both the South African Rand and Turkish Lira fell against the US dollar on Wednesday ahead of key rate decisions. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is anticipated to leave rates steady at a five-year high of 12 percent following six hikes since last year, while the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is forecasted to leave rates at 16.75 percent after hiking during the past three meetings. Indeed, both regions have experienced robust price growth, but with domestic demand starting to wane, they will seek to take less aggressive actions going forward. Traders should keep an eye on any commentary by either the SARB and CBRT following the decisions, as any sort of biased rhetoric will have a large impact on the forex markets.

For coverage on the Hong Kong Dollar and Singapore Dollar, check out John Rivera’s Asia Emerging Market Daily.




Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Strategist for

Glad to see our new coverage of emerging market currencies? Let us know: [email protected]


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105