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Friday August 15, 2008 - 18:01:32 GMT
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GVI Forex Blog - Thoughts For The Week AheadThoughts For The Week Ahead:
The best case against the dollar continuing its rise is that it has
come a long way in a short time, with the euro falling nearly 1400
points in one month, an 8.6% drop and 6.5% since the start of the
month. This is a huge move by fx standards and the norm in this market
is that prices rarely move in a straight line. By any technical
measure, market appears overdone but given that major trends have been
broken and liquidations and shifts in capital flows are driving it,
there is no reason to guess at a bottom until the market gives a clue
to do so.
The most talked about level seems to be eur/$ 1.45 with GS forecasting
this level by the end of the year. Charts show next key support at
1.4612 with key levels not until 1.4440, 1.4366 and 1.4310.
On the other side, note this post from GVI on Friday
Here is one thought - Market likes to trade big figs, now between
1.45-1.48 - so 1.4650, the midpoint becomes important - if it holds,
risk is to 1.48. If it fails to hold, risk is to 1.45. So watch 1.4650
as a potential pivotal level. Note, there were supposed to be strong
bids at 1.4850 and 1.4750 and the market ran through them like Swiss
What to look for in the week ahead?
With the euro leading the way as a fundamental shift in the outlook for
the Euro zone economy (amid a slowing global growth scenario) and a
subsequent shift in the ECB outlook, the focus in the week ahead should
be on economic data, especially from the EZ and UK. This is expected to
be negative for the most part so how the euro (and GBP) react to such
data will give a clue to the market whether to pause and take some
U.S. data is currently taking a back seat and market would have to take
greater notice, especially if it turns weak, to suggest focus is back
on the dollar. Of course there are other factors, political (e.g.
Russia-Georgia, oil, gold, etc) impacting the market as well. Check out
our economic calendar for what lies ahead for the week.
Click for weekly economic calendar
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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