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Tuesday August 19, 2008 - 11:26:36 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: German ZEW Beats Expectations

·*** DATA ***

·GE July Producer Prices: M/M 2.0% v 0.7%e || Y/Y 8.9% v 7.5%e

·GE Aug ZEW Economic Sentiment: -55.5 v - 62.0e

·GE Aug ZEW Current Situation: -9.2 v 10.0e

·EU Aug ZEW Economic Sentiment: -55.7 v -65.0e

·SW Q2 Industrial Capacity: 90.4% v 91.2% prior


·In the newspapers the Telegraph wrote that Gfk [GFK.UK] has named UBS [UBSN.SZ] as its adviser for its possible bid for Taylor Nelson [TNS.UK] The Telegraph wrote overnight that Woolworths [WLW.UK] is expected to disclose that its pension scheme deficit doubled to about £100M.

·In fixed income the results from the DMO's meeting with the GEMMs showed that most GEMMs favored either a 2017 or 2022 I/L GILT to begin the quarter. Minutes showed significant support for new 2032/33 I/L Gilt, with some members seeking two issuances. One GEMM member called for launch of a new 2042 or 2043 GILT. There was also widespread support for a 2013 Gilt auction, and significant support for 2 auctions of 2049 GILT. Some members called for new long GILT in Q3.

·In currencies the GBP was broadly softer during the European session sparked by comments from the BOE's Beasley. The GBP/USD broke below the 1.86 level to rested last week's low of 1.8510 before consolidation. JPY related pairs were softer as concerns over the health of the global financial sector continued to simmer. Dealers noted comments made by Former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff who said that the financial crisis was at the halfway point added that perhaps “the worst is to come." The EUR failed to gain following 'better' ZEW data as lower commodity prices maintained a steady USD ahead of the
US housing data later today.

·On the speaker front, an interview with the Financial Times, the SNB's Roth noted that credit conditions in
Switzerland have not deteriorated. Roth said that the SNB operates differently from the ECB as the ECB operates on the overnight rate and the SNB targets a market interest rate, adding that central banks should coordinate more in crises. With respect to monetary policy Roth said that everything is in place according to its June forecast. The Bank of England's Besley said in a newspaper interview overnight that he sees inflation coming back towards the 2% target by the end of 2009. Besley does not expect inflation to decline by the end of the year, adding that the UK need rates at "suitable level" until the CPI threat is over. The German BGA maintained 2008 GDP growth forecast of 1.7%, and forecasted 2009 GDP growth dropping below 1%. The BGA said that it does not expect the EUR/USD to drop below $1.4000 The BGA added that the German economy is in a corrective phase that will most likely extend into 2009. The BGA expects 2008 German exports to grow 6.0% y/y, and sees 2009 exports 'significantly' below 2008 levels. Following the release of the ZEW survey the ZEW's Schmidt noted that investors expect a further drop in both the Euro and oil prices. The ZEW's Franz said that the financial market expects a weaker but robus economy, adding that market experts do not fear a recession. Franz added that the ECB should maintain its current interest rate level.

·*** NOTES ***

·All was relatively quiet again overnight, with the Zew survey representing the biggest new release seen overnight. The economic sentiment reading beat out expectations posting its third rise since mid-2007, while the current situation reading continued its downward path falling to its lowest level since March of 2006. German producer prices were also notable, with the m/m reading at its highest level since January of 1974, and the y/y reading at its highest since November of 1981.

·“A hero is someone who has given his or her life to something bigger than oneself” - Joseph Campbell.


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