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Wednesday August 20, 2008 - 10:50:14 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: BOE Split 3 Ways on August Rate Vote

·*** DATA ***

·SZ July M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.9% prior || Prior revised from 1.5% to 1.9%

·UK July Public Finances: -£12.6B v -£10Be || Prior revised from £15.5B to £15. 3B

·UK July Net Borrowing: -£4.8B v -£4.3Be || Prior revised from £9. 2B to £9.6B

·UK July Preliminary M4 Money Supply: M/M 0.9% v 0.5%e || Y/Y 11.2% v 10.7%e || Prior Y/Y revised from 11.4% to 11.3%

·UK July Preliminary Sterling Lending: £14.3B v £14Be || Prior revised from £46. 1B to £46.7B

·UK BOE Minutes: BOE Voted 7-1-1 to hold rates at 5. 00% at the August 7th meeting

·EU June Construction Output: M/M -0. 6% v 0.1% prior || Prior m/m revised from 0.2% to 0.1% |||| Y/Y -2.4% v -1. 6% prior || Prior revised from -1.1% to -1.6%

·UK Aug CBI Industrial Trends: -13 v -8 prior


·In equity news overnight Citigroup recommended “overweighting” Brazilian banks. Grupo Ferrovial [FER.SP] announced overnight that the Competition Commission may force BAA to sell three airports. Ericsson [ERICB.SW] and STMicroelectronics [SEM.FR] announced a joint venture. STMicroelectronics and Ericsson announced an agreement to merge Ericsson Mobile Platforms and ST-NXP Wireless..

·According to the Financial Times 3i [III.UK] is in deal to take over Acciona's [ANA.SP] funeral operator. 3i plans to re-enter the European funeral services market following a deal to acquire a 75% stake in Spain's Memora Inversiones Funerarias. The stake is being sold by the Spanish construction and energy group Acciona in a deal that places an enterprise value on Memora of €330M The Economic Times wrote overnight that Fiat [F. IT] Fiat and Tata Motors [TTMT.IN] may seek to jointly manufacture next- generation Jaguar and Land Rover engines. According to TV2 Danske Bank [DANSKE.DC] sees losses at its Irish unit over the next 12 to 18 months.

·On the speaker front the German BDB Association reiterated its 2008 GDP growth forecast of 2.25%-2.5%, and its 2009 forecast of 1.0%-1.5%. The BDB also said that higher ECB rates is no longer topical, adding that they see a chance for 2.0% inflation in 2009. The Bank of England minutes from the August 7th meeting showed that the BOE voted 7-1-1 to hold rates at 5.00%, with MPC member Besley voting for a 25bps rate hike, and Blanchflower voting for a 25bps rate cut as was widely expected. The MPC noted that all three options were considered at the meeting. The BOE said that the growth outlook has deteriorated in the past month, adding that inflation has eased somewhat. The majority argued that a rate increase would have risked hurting confidence, while a cut risked keeping inflation elevated. The BOE noted that wage growth has remained subdued, and noted that most members see inflation risks remaining on the upside. The German Economic Ministry said overnight that the German economic outlook darkens beyond the second quarter.

·*** NOTES ***

·As is typical of the post-earnings season rush markets were quiet overnight. Minutes from the Bank of England's August 7th policy-setting meeting were the biggest release overnight, but failed to wake up the sleepy August markets. The minutes did however dampen expectations that perhaps the BOE would opt for an early rate cut.

·“Don't be seduced into thinking that that which does not make a profit is without value.” - Authur Miller

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