User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday August 22, 2008 - 14:50:44 GMT
BHF-Bank -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Blog - FX Briefing - Economic signals in the run-up to ECB meeting

FX Briefing 22 August 2008


·        US banks still in the spotlight – Fannie and Freddie to be nationalized?

·        ifo unlikely to have deteriorated further in August

·        Inflation in Germany eases slightly

Economic signals in the run-up to ECB meeting

After the US dollar’s sharp rebound in the first half of August, a moderate counter-movement
began a few days ago. EUR-USD recovered from about 1.46 at the start of the week to around 1.4840. The yen made similar gains: USD-JPY fell from 110.50 to just over 109. The highest gains – well over two per cent during the course of the week – were made by the Eastern European currencies, which had previously posted the highest losses. In contrast, the Swiss franc, and the pound Sterling in particular, only made a relatively weak recovery.

The dollar’s rally had been mainly due to the sharp deterioration in the economic outlook in the rest of the world, particularly the eurozone and other EU countries, but also Japan. The sustained economic problems in the US seemed to have faded slightly into the background at that point, given that real GDP growth turned out to have been relatively strong in Q2, the manufacturing sector still looked quite robust (due to foreign demand), and falling commodity prices had had a positive impact on equity markets.

This week, however, the problems came to the fore again. The former IMF chief economist caused a stir by saying that some larger US banks could collapse and that the worst of the financial crisis was still to come. On top of that, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were back in the headlines too. According to an article in a journal, there is no alternative but to nationalize them.

Other factors are also indicating that the economic problems in the US are by no means over yet. Hopes that the housing market could have bottomed out were crushed by the building permits and housing starts figures. The significant decline in August indicates that the downward trend is still underway, at least in the new homes sector. Furthermore, it is striking that the various Fed representatives, whose opinions as to the necessity of tightening monetary policy differ considerably, agree unanimously that the US economy will not recover for quite some time.

Next week, the focus will probably be on the European side again. The development of consumer prices in August, national climate indicators such as ifo and GfK, and the results of the EU Commission’s survey are all on the agenda. Detailed German GDP data for the second quarter, German labour market figures for August and eurozone money supply and credit growth figures are also due to be released. These data will have a key impact on market participants’ expectations of the outcome of the ECB Council meeting on 4 September.

As classical leading indicators, results of surveys are of course difficult to predict. We are expecting the ifo business climate to have stabilized – not because we have become more optimistic about the economy, but because it had plummeted in July. Accordingly, the assessment of the current situation is likely to be worse. We think it possible, however, that, as in the case of the ZEW, expectations, which are very negative as it is, could have improved very slightly, because of the decrease in prices for oil and other commodities and the depreciation of the euro. Furthermore, the deterioration in the retail trade business climate in July could have been exaggerated due to the holiday period and the hot weather.

The August consumer price data are particularly interesting, as this was when the energy price decline started having an effect. In Germany, we are expecting prices to have fallen by 0.3 percentage points due to fuel and heating oil; the annual inflation rate could thus go down from 3.3 to 3.2%. This would only be a slight decline, but it could mean that inflation has peaked. On the eurozone level (the flash estimate for August will be released on Thursday) we think that the inflation rate will probably have remained unchanged at 4.0% in August, but there is also a chance of improvement.

Based on the new projections, the ECB Council’s September meeting will, to a certain extent, pave the way for the coming quarter. If the ifo and the other sentiment indicators stabilize, some market participants, who are at present banking on interest rate cuts, could become more cautious. The development of inflation described above is more or less in line with general expectations. Market participants might even be slightly disappointed that the substantial fall in oil prices did not push inflation down further.

In the run-up to the ECB Council’s meeting, we are expecting the bond markets in the eurozone to remain on the weak side. We see EUR-USD near the top end of its new trading range, which we put at approximately 1.46 to 1.49.

Stephan Rieke +49 69 718-4114

Economics Department
+49 69 718-3642
[email protected]
Foreign Exchange Trading
[email protected]
Jörg Isselmann
+49 69 718-2695
Matthias Grabbe / Klaus Näfken
+49 69 718-2688


<i>This report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies (together "BHF-BANK Group") solely for the information of its clients. The information and opinions in this document are based on sources believed to be reliable and acting in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by any member of the BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and recommendations are given in good faith but without legal responsibility and are subject to change without notice. The information does not constitute advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of suitability would be owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision. Moreover, you should seek your own advice as to the suitability of an investment matter mentioned herein. Investors are reminded that the price of securities and the income from them can go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment or a market is not necessarily indicative for future results. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its officers and employees may have a long or short position or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned in this document, or in any related securities. This publication must not be distributed in the United States.

© 2007 BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft

All rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.



Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105