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Wednesday August 27, 2008 - 11:04:50 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: German State CPI Readings Slightly Lower on the Y/Y Front



·*** DATA ***

·GE July Import Price Index: M/M 0.6% v 0.5%e || Y/Y 9.3% v 9. 2%e

·SP Q2 Final GDP: Q/Q 0.1% v 0.1%e || Y/Y 1.8% v 1. 8%e

·SW Aug Manufacturing Confidence: -12 v -12e || Prior revised from -10 to -11

·SW Aug Consumer Confidence: -16.5 v -17. 0e

·SW Aug Economic Tendency Survey: 85.5 v 88.5 prior || Prior revised from 89.0 to 88.5

·SW July Household Lending Y/Y: 10.5% v 10. 6% prior

·GE Aug Saxony CPI: M/M -0.4% v 0.6% prior || Y/Y 3.3% v 3. 6% prior

·GE Aug Hesse CPI: M/M -0.4% v 0.5% prior || Y/Y 3.4% v 3. 7% prior

·GE Aug Bavaria CPI: M/M -0.3% v 0.6% prior || Y/Y 3.1% v 3. 3% prior

·GE Aug Brandenburg CPI: M/M -0.3% v 0.5% prior || Y/Y 3.1% v 3.2% prior

·GE Aug North Rhine Westphalia CPI: M/M -0.4% v 0.6% prior || Y/Y 2.9% v 3.3% prior

·IT Aug Consumer Confidence: 99.5 v 96.4e

·IC Aug CPI: M/M 0.9% v 1.0%e || Y/Y 14.5% v 14. 6%e

·*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

·In equity news overnight Randstad Holding [RAND.NV] reported adjusted Q2 net income of €125.2M, roughly in line with the €124.5M consensus, EBITDA of €233.8M, below estimates of €250Me, and revenue of €4.5B, just above the €4. 4B consensus. [Shares were +1.5% in early trading]. Voestalpine [VOE.AS] reported Q1 net income of €236M, well above the €192M consensus, EBIT of €338M, just above estimates of €330M, and revenue of €3.26B, well above the €3.03B consensus. Voestalpine also confirmed its outlook for flat operating profit y/y. [Shares were % in early trading]. GFK [GFK.GE] announced overnight the termination of discussions regarding a possible offer for Taylor Nelson Sofres [TNS.UK]. [Shares were -1.5% in early trading]. Taylor Wimpey [TW.UK] reported a 1H net loss of £1.42B overnight, down from a loss of £196.7M a year ago. Pretax of £4.3M was down from £119.8M a year ago, while revenue of £1.89B was up from £1.4B. Taylor Wimpey said that its current liquidity position is strong, and noted that talks with banks regarding covenants are ongoing. The company wrote down £693M on land bank, and £816M on goodwill and assets. [Shares were -13.5% in early trading]. Paddy Power [PAP.UK] reported 1H net income of €41.9M, above the €38.5M consensus. Operating profit of €47.8M was above the €44.4M consensus. The company guided FY08 EPS 4%-5% below the current consensus estimate. Furthermore Paddy Power guided FY08 operating profit of €75M, below the €82. 6M consensus. The company had previously guided operating profit of €82M for the year. [Shares were -8.7% in early trading].

·In the newspapers the Wall Street Journal wrote overnight that the United Steelworkers are threatening a strike against ArcelorMittal [MTP.FR]. The labor union could seek to strike if the two sides cannot agree on terms by Saturday. Note that the union represents 14K workers; The union's current contract expires on September 1. According to the Financial Times BT Group [BT.UK] may seek to sell its stake in Tech Mahindra. The Telegraph wrote overnight that Lehman [LEH] may discard some of its small
UK corporate borrowers from a book of £1.3B in commercial loans.

·On the energy front IEA chief Tanaka said overnight that he wants OPEC to maintain current output levels at the September meeting, noting that despite the recent fall from record levels oil prices are still high. Tanaka added that market tightness will ease in 2009-2010. Tanaka sees plenty of risks on the supply side, and predicted that spare oil production capacity will tighten again from 2013.

·In new supply overnight
Italy sold €750M in 1. 85% 2012 I/L bonds with an average yield of 2.11% and a bid-to-cover of 1. 72x, as well as €696M in 2.60% 2023 I/L bonds with an average yield of 2. 53% and a bid-to-cover of 1.61x.

·On the speaker front Swedish think tank NIER updated its forecasts overnight. NIER cut its 2008 GDP forecast to 1.7 from 2.4%, and its 2009 forecast to 1.4% from 2.0%. NIER also raised its 2008 CPI forecast to 3.8% from 3.7%, and cut the 2009 forecast to 2.5% from 2.9%. NIER reiterated its forecast for Riksbanks' key interest rate to be at 4.50% at the end of 2008, and 3.75% by end of 2009.

·*** NOTES ***

·Following the weaker than expected IFO data in Germany yesterday focus overnight fell upon the state CPI readings in Germany. The German state of Saxony was the first to post, and quickly added some support to the European fixed income futures as the m/m reading declined to -0.4% in August, it lowest reading since April of 2005, from 0.6% in July. While the decline in the y/y reading was less drastic it provided some relief as it was a step down from last month's highs. As is typically the case the remainder of the German state CPI readings followed in a similar fashion with the m/m readings declining sharply, and the y/y readings posting slight declines. The lower CPI readings lend to the idea that the next ECB rate move will be a rate cut. Despite supporting such an idea the general market reaction was one of pessimism; with y/y levels still notably above the ECB's target many market participants believe that the ECB will not make any move to cut rates in 2008.

·“Cinema is the most beautiful fraud in the world.” - Jean-Luc Godard

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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